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08.08.2016 10:45

What the bonds say about EUR/USD and USD/JPY - Societe Generale

"The US/Japanese real 10year yield spread moved back out to 50bp after the payroll data, but just eye-balling the yield spread and USD/JPY suggests we'd need a 20bp move up in US real yields to have any chance of seeing USD/JPY 110. My hopes of that happening haven't revived on these figures, and as for the 50bp move in relative yields that would point the way to USD/JPY120... that's going to take better US data and a massive change of heart by the BOJ. Maybe a risk-friendly set of US numbers is enough to keep USD/JPY from breaking 100 for now, but the most we can hope for is that a 100-105 range is enough to give the Nikkei a bid...

The EUR/USD chart isn't any more encouraging. The 10-year real yield differential, at 1.02%, is exactly at the average of 2016, and did I mention that the EUR/USD average this year is 1.1150? ½% below that is probably a fair discount for the Eurozone's proximity to the UK. I'd rather get my duration kick in the Eurozone than the US (or the UK for that matter, though that's not exactly working out at the moment)".

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