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05.08.2016 06:47

Asian session review: the Australian dollar has strengthened

The US dollar traded in a narrow range against the euro and the yen, however, the US currency may depend on the number of jobs created in July (NFP), which will be released later today.. Some investors believe that Friday's employment data will be strong, so that the Federal Reserve in the next few months will be able to produce a rise in interest rates. Today, the futures on interest rates suggest that the market is priced in a 18% probability of rate hikes in September and 39% in December.

Today was publised positive data on changes in wage levels in Japan. As reported by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan sjowed that in the period from January to June wages increased by 1.3%, after declining during the same period of the previous year -0.1%. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 0.4%. The increase in June was the first in the last three months. This indicator takes into account compensation for overtime work and bonuses, but do not take into account the income received in the form of interest on financial assets or capital gains. Earnings growth contributes to consumption, and therefore the upward trend index of wages is considered to be an inflationary factor for the Japanese economy. Real cash incomes increased to its highest level since September 2010 and + 1.8% on an annualized basis. Higher wages are one of the main goals of the Japanese administration, and today's data look better.

The Australian dollar rose, reaching a new three-month high contrary to RBA views that inflation may remain below the target until the end of 2018 and that is likely a further decrease in interest rates. So today, the Reserve Bank of Australia extended forecast for inflation at 1.5% -2.5% at the end of 2018. Core inflation will also remain at 1.5% -2.5% at the end of 2018

The forecast for GDP growth has remained almost unchanged. With regard to the labor market, the RBA expects only a slight decline in unemployment

According to the Central Bank, a lower rate of the Australian dollar, eventually, will support inflation.

Also today it became known that the index of activity in the construction sector of Australia HIA / AiG in July was 51.6 points and lower than the previous value of 53.2.

The index of activity in the construction sector based on a survey of 120 companies published by Australia Industry Group and Housing Industry Association. This indicator reflects the conditions in the construction sector in the short and medium term. Companies respond to questions relating to production, employment, supplier prices, stocks and new orders.

The index decreased for the second month in a row, but remained above 50, which is positive for the Australian currency. New orders and employment are growing against the background of softer rates. however, the activity of sub-indices declined slightly. Also there was uncertainty associated with the federal election in Australia on July 2 contributed to slower growth in the industry.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.1125-40 range


GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.3110-30 range


USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in Y101.05-10 range


05.08.2016 07:15

WSE: After opening

Market Focus

  • US nonfarm payrolls rise more than expected in July
  • Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widens in June
  • Canada unemployment rate falls to lowest level since October 2008
  • Canada Ivey PMI falls less than expected in July
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