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25.07.2016 12:42

European session review: US dollar fell moderatly against the euro

The following data was published:

(Time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

8:00 Germany IFO business climate index in July 108.7 107.5 108.3

08:00 Germany IFO current conditions index July 114.5 114 114.7

10:00 UK Balance industrial orders Confederation of British Industry in July -2 -4

The euro rose moderately against the dollar, partially recovering from Friday's lows. Particular support was provided by positive data on Germany, pointed to the economy's resilience to the impacts of Brexit. The research results, published by the Ifo Institute, showed that in July, business sentiment in Germany deteriorated less than expected. According to the data, the business climate index fell to 108.3 points vs 108.7 points in June. Analysts had forecast a drop to 107.5 index. The index of business expectations dropped to 102.2 vs. 103.1 in June, while the current conditions index rose to 114.7 from 114.6.

In addition, investors are gradually getting ready for the Fed meeting, which will take place this week. Despite the fact that the published recent data on the US increase the likelihood of the Fed raising rates, it is unlikely to happen at the July meeting. According to a Reuters survey results, just over half of the 100 economists expect the Fed raising rates in the 4th quarter to 0.50-0.75 percent to 0.25-0.50 percent currently. The change is likely to occur in December. Futures on the federal funds assess the probability of a rate hike in July 4%. Meanwhile, the chances increase to 39% in December.

The British pound consolidated against the dollar, while remaining near the opening level. Experts point out that in the background of almost empty economic calendar the British pound largely focused on changes in risk appetite. Little influence has also had a report of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). As it became known, according to data for the current month industrial new orders balance fell to -4 compared to -2 in June. However, the latest reading was slightly better than the average forecast (-6). Meanwhile, the index of orders for the next three months dropped to +6 in July from 23 in June. Quarterly figures showed that total orders balance within three months (July) rose to +9 versus -4 in the previous three months (in April), reaching annual maximum. But the index of expected new orders fell during this period to 0 (at least from January 2012). In addition, it was reported that the quarterly business optimism balance fell to -47 from -5 in the previous three months (April). The last value is the lowest since January 2009.

Later this week, investors will be watching the results of the UK business and consumer surveys in the hope of receiving signals on how Brexit impacts the economy.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.0996.

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in the $ 1.3108- $ 1.3161 range.

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y106.00, but then rebounded slightly.

25.07.2016 12:09


Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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