FX & CFD trading involves significant risk
The week ahead sees house price data, CPI, PPI, unemployment, retail sales and a 'special' PMI release as well. If we've cleared enough of the shorts out, sterling could slip back. Weak data would convince markets that the failure to ease in July was just a temporary delay. On the other hand, if for some reason the data are OK, then who knows It's bound to be fascinating.
When all the dust settles, I think we'll see new lows for sterling and a steeper curve, but on a one-week view, it's hard to be confident of anything much in the UK.
The US sees minor data this week (housing starts, Philly Fed, existing home sales) and that won't be a driver of markets.
But US markets will be a driver, as equities remain well supported and bond yields are adjusting to equities. The dollar needs more real yield support (and needs the nominal rates market to get ahead of real rates/yields.
SocGen maintains a short GBP/USD from 1.3750 targeting 1.25.*
*This trade is recorded and tracked in eFXplus Orders.
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