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15.07.2016 12:22

European session review: US dollar fell against the euro

The following data was published:

(Time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

12:00 Eurozone trade balance, without seasonal adjustment in May 27.5 23 24.6

12:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index m / m in June 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%

12:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index y / y (final data) June -0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

12:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index, the base value, y / y (final data) June 0.8% 0.9% 0.9%

15:00 UK BOE Speech Mark Carney

Euro rose moderately against the dollar, approaching yesterday's highs. Some support for the single currency had inflation statistics for the euro area, which coincided with forecasts. The statistical agency Eurostat reported that in June, consumer prices in the eurozone rose by 0.2% after rising 0.4% in May. Meanwhile, annual inflation rose in June by 0.1% after falling 0.1% the previous month. Last change (MoM and YoY) in line with expectations and preliminary estimate. Recall that in June 2015, annual inflation was 0.1%. The base index, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.9% year on year, confirming the forecasts and coincided with the previous estimate. Recall that in May, the index increased by 0.8%. Among the EU countries, annual inflation remained unchanged in June, after falling 0.1% in May. A year earlier the rate was 0.1%. Experts point out that despite the improvement, inflation is now just as far from the target of the ECB, as well as two years ago, when the first stimulus measures have been taken. However, during July meeting ECB not be likely to change the parameters of monetary policy and will continue to focus on the implementation of the stimulus package, announced in March this year.

Trading dynamics also affected by expectations of the US data sets, namely retail sales, consumer price inflation, industrial production and consumer confidence. In the latest statement the Fed's monetary policy stated that household spending rising and inflation is below the target level, partly reflecting the drop in energy prices and import prices excluding energy.

The British pound depreciated significantly against the dollar, returning to the opening levels of the session. The decline was caused by the release of the pound weak data on the UK, as well as statements by the representatives of the Central Bank of England. Office for National Statistics reported that the volume of construction fell sharply in May, during the preparations for the referendum on membership in the European Union. Last update indicates that the sector could put pressure on economic growth in the second quarter. The report showed that in May, the volume of production in the construction sector decreased by 2.1% compared to April. Analysts had expected that the volume of construction to decrease by 1.1% after rising 2.8% in April (revised from + 2.5%). Housing construction fell by 3.2 percent in May, recording the biggest drop since February, 2014. The ONS said that the volume of construction should increase by 1.9 percent in June, in order to avoid impact on economic growth in the second quarter. However, experts note that such growth looks unlikely. In addition, data showed that construction fell by 1.9 percent after declining 0.6 percent in annual terms in April. Economists had expected a decline of 3.5 percent.

However, today the Bank of England representative Haldane noted that in August is need a substantial easing of monetary policy. "The referendum significantly increased economic uncertainty, which will put pressure on costs in the foreseeable future, - the politician said -. The economy is likely to slow, and slowing down can cause a significant increase in unemployment, however, there is no reason to predict the financial crisis." In addition, Haldane said that inflation may exceed the target level, but it is unlikely that inflation will stabilize at a high level

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.1148, but then retreated slightly


GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3343 from $ .3481


USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair traded in a narrow range

15.07.2016 12:00

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