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08.06.2016 18:22

American focus: The US dollar fell against the euro

The US dollar fell moderately against the euro, updating the five-week minimum. Experts point out that the US currency continues to be under pressure due to uncertainty regarding the timing of the next increase of the interest rates of the US Federal Reserve.

Prospects of rate increases significantly worsened after the release of US labor market report showed that the pace of hiring slowed sharply at the end of May. The recent speech of Fed Yellen also confirmed the central bank's intention to postpone the rate hike as long as the uncertainty about the economic outlook does not shatter. Today futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike of 2% in June. Meanwhile, the chances increase rate estimated at 25% in July.

A slight effect on the dollar also provided an overview of vacancies and labor turnover (JOLTS), published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. As it became known, in April, the number of vacancies grew to 5,788,000. To 5.67 million. In March (revised from 5.757 million.). Analysts had expected the number of vacancies will be 5,672,000. Vacancy rate was 3.9 percent in April. The number of jobs has changed little in the private sector and the government sector. Hiring fell to 5.1 million. The level of employment was 3.5 per cent. Hiring has not changed in the private sector and decreased government services (-31,000). As for the layoffs, the number is almost unchanged in April and amounted to 2.9 million. The level of redundancies was 2.0 percent.

The British pound fell against the dollar, returning to the level of opening of the session, which was due to technical factors and changes in risk appetite. The growth of the pound holding back continued uncertainty regarding the outcome of the forthcoming referendum in Britain. In the course of trading and continue to influence today's data for the UK, which exceeded forecasts. The Office for National Statistics said that industrial output advanced 2 percent in April from March, when it grew by 0.3 per cent. Economists had forecast a zero change. Production growth in the manufacturing sector accelerated to 2.3 percent from 0.1 percent the previous month, while the projected he had to abide by. On an annual basis, industrial output jumped 1.6 percent after falling 0.2 percent in March. This growth rate was last seen in October. It was predicted to fall 0.4 percent. Similarly, manufacturing output rose by 0.8 percent, in contrast to the 1.9 percent decrease in March and a 1.3 percent drop forecast by economists. It was the first increase in production since May 2015.

The Canadian dollar lost some ground against the US dollar, retreating from the highest point on May 3. Most likely, the cause of this trend is a profit after prolonged strengthening of the Canadian currency. Further fall was restrained by the positive dynamics of the oil market. Oil prices are rising for the third consecutive session, while establishing new highs in 2016. Support for oil have oil supply disruptions in Nigeria, as well as statistics on US petroleum inventories. Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude stocks in the previous week fell by 3,560 million barrels. Analysts had expected a decrease of 3.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy today announced that during the week 28 May - 3 June oil stocks fell by 3.2 million barrels to 532.5 million barrels. Experts predicted a decline of 2.7 million. Barrels. Oil reserves in Cushing terminal fell by 1.4 million barrels to 65.6 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 1 million barrels to 239.6 million barrels. Analysts had expected stocks will fall 500,000 barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels to 151.4 million barrels. Analysts had forecast a drop to 300,000 barrels. The utilization of refining capacity increased by 1.1% to 90.9%. Analysts expected an increase of 0.6%. Meanwhile, oil production rose to 8.745 million barrels per day to 8.735 million barrels per day in the previous week

Market Focus

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  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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