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07.06.2016 18:20

American focus: The US dollar was down against the pound and the Canadian dollar

The dollar consolidated against the euro while remaining near the level of opening of the session, due to the uncertain prospects of higher interest rates the Fed in the coming months. Experts point out that market participants are likely to continue to exercise caution until next week, when a meeting of the Fed's monetary policy. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said that a gradual rise in interest rates in the United States possible while maintaining good macroeconomic indicators. However, she did not say anything about the timing of such an increase. In late May, Yellen mentioned the likelihood of higher interest rates "in the coming months", but in yesterday's speech such temporary signs were absent. The Fed chief added that investors should not place too much focus on the weak statistics on the labor market. "If the situation on the market labor improves, inflation close to the target level, it would be appropriate to raise rates gradually if inflation remains low, the Fed can only take limited measures to stimulate in the background of almost zero interest rates loose monetary policy remains appropriate..", - He explained Yellen. Investors expect that next week the Fed will keep rates unchanged, and many continue to believe that at the meeting in July, rates will remain at the same level. Futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike of 2% in June. The chances of an increase in rates are estimated at 23% in July.

A slight effect on the dollar was data indicated that labor productivity in the US non-agricultural sector decreased by 0.6 percent during the first quarter. The volume of production increased by 0.9 percent and the number of hours worked increased by 1.5 per cent. Since the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, productivity increased by 0.7 per cent. Unit labor costs in the non-agricultural sector increased by 4.5 percent in the first quarter, an increase of 3.9 per cent decrease in hourly compensation and productivity by 0.6 percent. Unit labor costs increased by 3.0 per cent over the past four quarters.

The British pound lost some of the previously-earned positions against the dollar, but still shows a significant increase. The main support for the currency have had results of a survey which showed that a somewhat larger number of respondents want Britain to remain in the EU. According to the poll Times / YouGov, for the preservation of EU membership voted 43% of respondents, with the output from the block - 42%. According to the ORB / Telegraph poll, for the preservation of the current order of things have voted 48% for its change - 47%. The attention of investors is also switched on the TV debate between Prime Minister David Cameron and the leader of the Party of Independence of the United Kingdom and a supporter of exit from the EU Nigel Farage. Debates to be held on Thursday.

Later this week, the focus will be on industrial production statistics and foreign trade, which is likely to point to the weakness of the British economy. Manufacturing probably felt the most strongly negative impact from the global challenges for the manufacturing sector and uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum on EU membership. Meanwhile, the trade deficit is likely to increase slightly. The reason for this is the weak support from external demand, the deterioration of the situation in the manufacturing sector and a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU.

The Canadian dollar rose modestly against the US dollar, approaching to a maximum of 4 May, helped by the increase in oil prices. Today, oil prices rose to their highest level in eight months against the backdrop of the fall of the US dollar and a reduction in oil production in Nigeria due to a series of attacks on oil installations. Oil prices jumped nearly doubled since January, when it reached the lowest level since the end of 2003, which was mainly due to the unplanned interruptions in oil production in countries such as Canada, Venezuela, Libya and Nigeria. Sentiment in the market has also improved against the background of decline in US shale oil production. However, as prices have reached a level where drilling activity is profitable for some companies, the number of rigs may begin to grow and the reduction of production volumes in the United States may slow down.

In the course of trading is also affected by expectations the publication of weekly data on US oil inventories. Today its report on stocks of the American Petroleum Institute will publish and tomorrow will leave government data. Analysts expect the US Energy Department reported a drop of oil to 3.5 million. Barrels. Yesterday Genscape industry group reported that for the week of June 3 at oil terminal in Cushing fell by 1.0 mln. Barrels.

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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