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25.05.2016 18:03

American focus: The US dollar fell markedly against the British currency

The pound rose more than 100 points against the dollar, updating the three-week high. Support currency had the results of another survey on the subject of the referendum, which confirmed once again that the number of British exit from the EU exceeds the number of opponents Brekzita supporters - 44% of respondents in favor of the preservation of the country in the EU, and 38% - against.

The growth of the pound also helped yesterday's comments head of the Bank of England Carney. Recall, Carney said that the Central Bank will provide stability and order in the markets in anticipation Brekzita, using auctions to provide liquidity. Carney said that if Britain left the EU, the next likely step will be the Central Bank interest rate rise

Later this week, investors will be watching the consumer confidence index of the UK, as well as the report on GDP. Given the economic slowdown, the rise of political uncertainty and the decline in the index GfK in the last month, experts predict that the consumer confidence index drops again. Meanwhile, the second estimate of GDP for the 1st quarter, is likely to confirm the early predictions of slowing economic growth. According to expert estimates, GDP grew by 0.4% after rising 0.6% in the 4th quarter of 2015. In annual terms, GDP growth is expected to stabilize at 2.1%.

The dollar fell slightly against the euro retreated from a two-week high, which was associated with the publication of weak US economic activity data. The Markit Economics reported that activity in the US service sector continued to expand in May, but the growth rate slowed to 3-month low, which was associated with a relatively subdued demand from customers and the less favorable domestic economic conditions. Preliminary PMI index for the services sector in May fell to 51.2 points versus 52.8 points in April. Economists had expected an increase to 53.1 points. The pace of activity growth in May was much weaker than the long-term average (55.6). The Markit Economics said that new orders continued to rise in May, but the weakest pace since the end of 2009. Some firms reported a cyclical downturn in investment spending and the reluctance of clients to implement new projects. Subdued demand has also helped reduce the backlog. At the same time, hiring the services sector firms rose in May, but only slightly. Procurement inflation rose for the second time in May, recording the maximum rate since July 2015. Meanwhile, the average selling prices also increased, but only slightly.

Investors also await Fed Chairman Yellen speech, scheduled for Friday, which may to some extent make it clear whether the Central Bank will raise interest rates soon. Today futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike in June is 38% versus 4% at the beginning of last week, and is estimated at 60% in July.

The Canadian dollar rose sharply against the US dollar, approaching to the maximum 19 May. The main influence on the currency have had the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of Canada. Recall, the Central Bank has left its main interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada reported that economic growth in the 1st quarter of approximately corresponded to earlier forecasts. Nevertheless, the Central Bank said that GDP growth in the 2nd quarter will be lower than expected due to the forest fires in the oil-rich province of Alberta. According to estimates of the Bank of Canada, forest fires in Alberta may take 1.25 percentage points from GDP growth in the 2nd quarter. "Restoring economic growth must take place in the 3rd quarter of this year due to increased production volumes and the start of work on the restoration of the fires in the province", - reported in the Bank of Canada,.

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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