Market news

5 May 2016

American focus: the US dollar strengthened significantly against the euro and Swiss franc

The US dollar rose significantly against the euro and the franc, updating the highs this month. Experts point increase in the demand for the US currency due to expectations the publication of a key US labor market report, which will be released tomorrow. It is expected that the number of people employed in non-agricultural sector increased by 202 thousand. After increasing by 215 thousand. In April. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at around 5.1%. If the forecasts are correct, it will be an additional argument for the Fed in favor of a gradual tightening of monetary policy. It should be emphasized in recent weeks, investors are actively put on the dollar's decline after Fed officials have signaled that they are in no hurry to increase interest rates in the coming months. Expectations of rate hikes tend to exert upward pressure on the dollar, as rising borrowing costs, making the US currency more attractive for investors. According to the quotations of futures on a bet the Fed, traders estimate the probability of a June rate increase of 11%.

The British pound traded mixed against the US dollar, while remaining near the level of opening of the session. Investors' attention was focused on by Britain and the US reports. As it became known, the index of business activity in the UK services sector in April was 52.3, lower than the previous value of 53.7 and analysts' expectations of 53.5. The April index indicator was the lowest in more than three years. Earlier this week, we were also published disappointing data on the index of industrial activity and construction sectors. According to analysts, the uncertainty associated with the outcome of the referendum on UK membership of the issue in the European Union is putting pressure on business sentiment.

With regard to the US data, the Ministry of Labor said the seasonally adjusted number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 30 rose by 17 000 to 274 000 (a five-week high). the last increase in rates were the highest in more than a year. Economists had expected the number of calls will increase only up to 260,000 from 257,000 the previous week. It is worth emphasizing the number of calls is less than 300 000 for 61 consecutive weeks, which is the longest series since 1973. Meanwhile, it became known that the moving average for 4 weeks, which smooths the volatile weekly data, rose by 2000 to 258 000. Meanwhile, the number of people who continue to receive unemployment benefits fell by 8,000 to 2.121 million . for the week ended April 23. The last reading was the lowest since November 2000.

Market Focus
  • ECB's Weidmann says first ECB rate hike could follow the end of QE more closely than in the U.S
  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit

All posted material is a marketing communication solely for informational purposes and reliance on this may lead to loss. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

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