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18.04.2016 18:21

American focus: The US dollar was down against the British Pound

The US dollar fell moderately against the euro, by updating at least Friday. Currently, there is clearly no important fundamental factors and technical sales targets on the market, so the impact on the quotes provided changing risk appetite, as well as the revision of the forecasts regarding the timing of further enhancing the US Federal Reserve rates. Today the head of the New York Fed Dudley repeated that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates. "Changes in monetary policy are likely to be carried out slowly and carefully, as we are still faced with considerable uncertainty, and the obstacles to economic growth caused by the financial crisis has not disappeared completely," - he said.

Recall Dudley has long been in favor of a gradual increase in interest rates. Now investors expect that the next time the Fed will raise rates in the June meeting. Futures on interest rates Fed point to 3% probability of a rate hike in April and 14% probability in June.

A slight pressure on the dollar have data on the housing market. As it became known from the report of the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo, the confidence of the builders on the market of newly built single-family homes remained unchanged in April at 58. "Trust builders held at 58 for three consecutive months, showing that the housing sector single-family homes continued to recover slowly, but consistent pace, - said chairman of the NAHB Ed Brady -. while we enter into the spring home buying season, we have seen that the market is moving forward. " The component measuring sales expectations for the next six months, rose by one point to 62, while customer traffic index also increased by one point to 44. At the same time, the component of current sales conditions fell two points to 63.

The British pound rose nearly 100 points against the dollar, updating the April 13, which was due to increased risk appetite on the background of the oil price recovery after the collapse in the early session. Support has also had a marked decrease in the pair EUR / GBP, which allowed it to reach its lowest level since April 1. Meanwhile, in the course of trade affected by the publication of data on standby in Britain. Later this week, investors will be focused on statistics on public sector borrowing. Economists believe that the data may be weak and the government will have to significantly reduce the volume of loans in order to meet the forecasts. It is also important will be data on the labor market. The February data was quite strong, but in March, is expected to slow growth in employment and accelerating wage growth. Meanwhile, the focus will be on retail sales report, which will have an important role against the backdrop of slowing activity in most sectors.

The yen has fallen significantly against the dollar, closing the gap formed at the opening of today's trading. Pressure on the yen has a general increase in risk appetite, as well as speculation that the government may take action to prevent further strengthening of the national currency. Today the head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda said that the yen's rise may undermine the Bank of Japan for higher inflation. He also stressed that the Bank of Japan will take measures without embarrassment again to boost inflation. Earlier today, the Japanese government spokesman said the government was closely monitoring the currency market and will take action if market participants are intentionally raising the yen too high. According to him, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan is often carried out consultations on the yen and in contact with the office of the Prime Minister.

Investors are also waiting for the Bank of Japan meeting, scheduled for April 27-28. In addition to the decision on the monetary policy of the Bank will publish its inflation forecasts and economic growth. The latest survey of 16 analysts conducted by Reuters showed that the Bank of Japan may again soften the policy by July. 8 of them are waiting for policy easing at the meeting of 27-28 April, 3 predict that softening occurs in June, 5- in July.

Market Focus

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  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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