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06.04.2016 17:59

American focus: the US dollar declined significantly against major currencies

The dollar depreciated significantly against the euro, reaching a minimum of 1 April, despite the absence of a particular driver. Analysts say one reason for the recent movement may be waiting publication of the protocol of the last meeting of the Fed. Market participants hope that the protocol will contain details on the latest economic forecasts and expectations. Particular attention will be paid to the risks of growth of the national and global economy. Important will also comment on the assessments to achieve the inflation target. In addition, the protocol may allow a better understanding of the degree of influence of volatility in global markets to reduce forecasts for the pace of rate hikes this year. Currently, futures on interest rates Fed indicated only 3% probability of a rate hike in April. Meanwhile, the chances of a rate hike by December fell to 58% from 68% a month ago. However, previously the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Rosengren said this week that the Fed rate futures are not significantly reflect the pace of rate hikes in the short term. Rosengren sees fit gradual increase in rates, but, in his opinion, it will not be so gradual, according to market participants.

After the release of the Fed's meeting minutes, market participants will switch attention to the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank, which will be presented tomorrow. Minutes of the ECB is likely to help you understand why the ECB Governing Council chose the stimulus measures and whether he considered there any other options for action. Also, they may contain clues as to the reasons for the revision of economic forecasts.

The pound rose substantially against the dollar, recouping all of the previously lost ground, which was due to the widespread weakening of the US currency on the eve of the publication of the Fed minutes. Also, market participants are waiting for release of British industrial production and trade balance data. The report on industrial production, which will be released on Friday, is likely to point to the difficulty faced by the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, most analysts believe that the UK balance of foreign trade, which will also be presented on Friday, February remained almost unchanged.

Earlier today, investors pay attention to the statistics on the sales of cars in Britain. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders on Wednesday (SMMT) reported that in March car sales rose by 5.3 percent to 518,707 units, as more than half a million customers have purchased the updated models of popular cars. It is worth mentioning only the third time the market has surpassed half a million units in a single month.

Demand for cars on alternative fuels increased by 21.5 percent in March, as consumers continue to prefer vehicles with lower emissions and lower operating costs. In the 1 st quarter sales rose 5.1 percent to 771,780 units. Mike Hawes, Executive Director of the SMMT, said that consumer confidence reveals that sales remain high, but generally stable throughout the year, but can be undermined by political or economic uncertainty.

The Canadian dollar has appreciated sharply against the US dollar, updating yesterday's high. Support currency had a significant rise in oil prices against the backdrop of the US Department of Energy report. It is learned that during the week April 26 March to 1 US crude stocks fell by 4.9 million barrels to 529.9 million barrels. Analysts had expected inventories to increase by 3.5 mln. Barrels. Oil reserves in Cushing terminal rose 357,000 barrels to 66.3 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks rose by 1.4 million barrels to 244 million barrels. Analysts had expected a decrease of 1.5 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels to 163 million barrels. Analysts had forecast a drop to 900,000 barrels. The utilization of refining capacity rose by 1% to 91.4%. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.1%. US domestic oil production fell to 9.008 million barrels per day, against 9.022 million. barrels the previous week. It should be emphasized, the report from the US Department of Energy has confirmed yesterday's data from the American Petroleum Institute, which showed that during the week April 26 March-1 oil inventories fell by 4.3 mln. Barrels. Analysts had forecast an increase of stocks at 3.2 million. Barrels.

Market Focus

  • US nonfarm payrolls rise more than expected in July
  • Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widens in June
  • Canada unemployment rate falls to lowest level since October 2008
  • Canada Ivey PMI falls less than expected in July
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