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The euro lost ground against the previously-earned dollar, and returned to the level of opening of the session. The pressure on the currency has investors' anxiety before the meeting of the European Central Bank, which will take place on Thursday. Experts point out that there is likelihood of recurrence of the events of December, when the measures taken by the ECB fell short of market expectations.
The survey of 48 economists conducted by Bloomberg from 26 February to 3 March, showed that the ECB will extend the program to stimulate the economy. 98% predict that the ECB will take further steps to revive the economy and inflation. All of these 98% of respondents expect a rate cut on deposits, and nearly three-quarters - of the monthly increase in the volume of bond redemption. The median forecast shows that the ECB deposit rate will be reduced by 0.10% to 0.4%, and the volume of assets of the program (QE) will be increased to 75 billion. Euros per month from the current 60 billion. Euro. At the same time 72% of respondents do not expect new measures of quantitative easing since March, and 60% do not expect further reduction of interest rates on deposits after the meeting.
Market participants also continue to analyze today's data for the euro area, which showed that the economy grew, according to preliminary estimates, in the fourth quarter. GDP grew by 0.3 percent sequentially, according to estimates published on 12 February. The economy showed a similar expansion of 0.3 percent in the third quarter. In annual terms, GDP growth remained stable at 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter. The annual growth rate has been revised from 1.5 percent. A breakdown of the expenditure side of GDP shows that the growth of household expenditures fell to 0.2 percent from 0.5 percent sequentially. At the same time, the growth of government spending accelerated in half to 0.6 percent from 0.3 percent. In addition, investments increased by 1.3 percent, faster than the growth of 0.4 percent quarter ago. Export growth remained at 0.2 per cent, while imports rose 0.9 percent after rising 1.2 percent in the previous quarter.
The pound retreated from session low against the dollar, but still shows a moderate decrease. Initially, the currency decline was caused by the comments of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. He noted that the new agreement between the UK and the EU should contribute to the achievement of two objectives: maintaining low and stable inflation and maintaining financial stability. Reached by Prime Minister Cameron of the country in late February agreement touches on some important aspects of economic governance in the EU, the Bank of England believes that it is important to achieve the goals. In particular, the agreement makes it clear that for the management of the UK financial system meets the Bank of England and other governing bodies of the country.
Support for the pound had statements of the Bank of England representative Huila. He said that the next step is likely to be a rate hike, but added that there is scope for policy easing if necessary. "The Bank of England may expand asset purchases and reduce the rate if necessary also the Bank of England may start buying the assets of the private sector where appropriate.", - The politician said.
According to Reuters latest survey, the Bank of England will not raise interest rates before the beginning of 2017. It is worth emphasizing, since the beginning of this year, experts push back deadlines rate hike for the third time. None of the 59 economists polled this week, does not expect any change in rates at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, which is scheduled for 17 March. The survey revealed that on average there is a 45 percent chance of growth rates by the end of this year. In late January, the probability was 55 percent. Meanwhile, the chances of a rate hike have increased to 75 percent by the end of next year. Analysts expect that by the end of next year the rate will be at 1.25 percent and then rise to 1.75 per cent until the end of 2018.
The Canadian dollar fell considerably against the US dollar, updating yesterday's low, which was associated with the publication of mixed statistics on Canada, as well as the resumption of decline in oil prices. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported that the number of new foundations bookmarks in Canada has increased from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of up to 212,594 units in February, compared to 165,071 units in January. The January figure was revised down from 165 900 units. The growing number of new foundations favorites was caused by an increase in single and multi-element segments. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada said that building permits in Canada fell 9.8% in January, losing to fall on expectations of 2.0%, after rising 7.7% in December. The December figure was revised from + 11.3%. The decline was due to the fall of permits for residential construction in British Columbia and Ontario.
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