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22.02.2016 19:21

American focus: the pound has fallen significantly against major currencies

The euro fell more than 100 points against the dollar, approaching to the level of $ 1.1000. Experts point out that the reason for such dynamics were weak data on business activity in the euro area, the strengthening US currency and concerns about the potential prospect of Britain from the EU. Today, Markit said that its index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany in February fell to 50.2 from 52.3. It is expected to decline to 52.0. index of business activity in Germany's services sector rose to 55.1 this month from 55.0 in January, beating expectations of growth to 54.7. French PMI index in the manufacturing sector rose to 50.3 in February to 50.0, exceeding expectations downward to 49.9. PMI French service sector fell to 49.8 from 50.3 in January, compared to expectations for no change. In the eurozone, the preliminary composite purchasing managers index fell to 52.7 in February from 53.6 in January. It was predicted that the index fell slightly to 53.5 in February. PMI in the euro zone services reached 13-month low of 53 compared to 53.6 last month. Economists had expected the figure will be 53.4. PMI for the euro zone's manufacturing sector fell to 51 from 52.3 in January. The expected result was 52.

A further rise in the dollar held back by a weak US statistics. Today it became known that the US manufacturing PMI (seasonally adjusted) reached 51.0 in February, compared with 52.4 in January. February data showed a failure for the US manufacturing sector, whose growth momentum fell again after a slight recovery at the beginning of 2016 The latest survey pointed to the weakest overall improvement in business conditions in just over three years, and the index was also at its lowest level since September 2009. The weaker rate of output, new orders and employment growth had a negative impact on the index. Output growth slowed for the third time in the last four months. The volume of new orders increased by one of the weakest pace in three years.

Also today, the representative of the Federal Reserve Williams noted that continues to support a gradual increase in the Central Bank rate. "The overall picture remains the same, and the basic approach of the Fed, expressed the intention of gradually raising rates, remain faithful", - the politician said. He expressed hope for the further growth of wages and productivity, as well as higher inflation around the target of 2%.

The British pound dropped significantly against the US dollar, updating at least this year, but then was able to recover some positions. The collapse of the pound was triggered by increased fears of Britain's exit from the EU. In addition, Moody's agency warned today that in the case of the British exit from the EU's rating could be revised. Some economists believe that the output of the UK will lead to capital outflows from the country and reduction of foreign investment, as well as a negative impact on economic growth.

Recall, on Saturday, David Cameron announced that a referendum on whether to continue the UK remain a member of the EU or to withdraw from the community, which he promised to carry out during his election campaign, will be held on 23 June. The UK government has supported the country's membership in the EU. According to the results of the summit, Prime Minister David Cameron failed to reach an agreement with the EU. He said that has achieved a special status for the UK in the EU. British Prime Minister said that the agreement reached at the EU summit agreement gives him reason to campaign for the country to remain part of the EU.

However, the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, who is a popular figure among the public, announced that he would play for the country's exit from the EU. His opinion can influence the decision of a very large number of Britons. In the UK the government six ministers will also agitate citizens to withdraw from the EU. However, now, according to opinion polls, the majority of Britons do not support the country's exit from the EU structure. According to a survey conducted by the publication Daily Mail, 48% of respondents believe that the country should remain in the EU, 33% in favor of output and 19% are still undecided on their choice. Meanwhile, the ICM survey results showed that 42% want Britain remained in the EU, 40% support Brekzita, while others were not defined with the views. However, it should be noted that the survey was conducted even before the Mayor of London announced its position.

The Canadian dollar has appreciated by more than 100 points against the US dollar, reaching a peak on February 18, helped by a significant increase in oil prices. Today, oil futures rose nearly $ 2 on the background of the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes data. However, analysts warned that the rally of oil is unlikely to be sustained, as the excess supply in the short term is likely to be maintained. IEA reported that the production of shale oil in the US will fall in March. After that, analysts say, will reduce the gap between supply and demand. Meanwhile, a report from Baker Hughes showed that the number of drilling rigs in the US last week fell by 26 units to 413 units, a decrease of 68% compared to the peak reached in October 2014. "The positive mood in the stock market and to reduce the amount of data drilling rigs in the United States provide some support to oil prices, "- said Hans van Cleef, an economist at ABN Amro.

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