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09.02.2016 19:20

American focus: The US dollar fell against most major currencies

The euro rose substantially against the US currency for the first time since October 22, 2015 breaking the mark of $ 1.1300. The reason for this was a widespread weakening of the US dollar. A slight influence also provided data from the Commerce Department that showed that inventories at wholesalers in the US fell in December for the third month in a row, this is another sign that the company reduced replenishment to the end of 2015 against the backdrop of weak sales. Inventories fell 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted $ 582 billion. Economists had expected a decrease of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the change in inventories for November was revised to -0.4% from -0.3%. In annual terms, growth stocks slowed to 1.9% from 6% at the beginning of last year. Sales at wholesalers fell 0.3%. From December 2014 to December 2015 wholesale sales fell 4.5%, mainly due to lower demand for metals. The ratio of inventories to sales was unchanged at 1.32 months.

The attention of investors is also switched on Yellen speech, which will be held on Wednesday and Thursday. Analysts believe that the performance Yellen will be neutral and wait to confirm the Fed's position. However, it is likely to once again demonstrate the optimistic view on the economy and inflation, although emphasize intensified the uncertainty of the forecast. speech tone is likely to be "dovish" that confirms a reduced likelihood of a rate hike in March. According to CME, futures on the Fed show only 2% probability of a rate hike in March, and 6% chance in April.

The Swiss franc rose significantly against the dollar, reaching CHF0.9700 mark (the first time since Oct. 22, 2015). It is worth emphasizing, since the beginning of February the franc rose more than 500 points against the dollar. Pressure has a couple of risk aversion in the global markets and the sale of the US dollar due to the fading hopes for Fed rate increase this year. On the trading dynamics also affect the previously published data on the labor market in Switzerland. Today, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) reported that the unemployment rate in Switzerland has stabilized in January. The unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 3.4 percent in January, the same as in December. On the basis of the unadjusted unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent in December. The total number of unemployed increased by 5,015 from the previous month and reached 163,644 in January. In turn, the unemployment rate among young people, which belongs to the age group 15-24 years increased to 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent a month earlier.

The pound appreciated sharply against the dollar, while approaching to the level of $ 1.4500. Amid lack of important economic data the British currency is focused on the dynamics of US stock indices. Previously it had little impact on trade balance data. The Office for National Statistics said that the trade deficit fell to 9.9 billion pounds from 11.5 billion pounds in November. Economists had forecast a deficit of EUR 10.4 billion. The narrowing was due to a fall in imports. A year ago, the deficit amounted to 13.5 billion pounds. The deficit in total trade decreased to 2.7 billion pounds from 4 billion pounds in November. Exports fell 0.8 percent compared with the previous month, while imports fell by 3.6 percent. In 2015, the overall trade deficit was 34.7 billion pounds compared to 34.4 billion pounds in the previous year. The increase in the trade deficit was due mainly to a decrease of 0.2 per cent of exports.

Market Focus

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  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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