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08.02.2016 19:19

American focus: the US dollar significantly depreciated against the yen

The Japanese yen has strengthened considerably against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since 12 November, 2014. Support currency exerted intensification of risk aversion on the background of falling global stock markets and lower oil prices. "Concerns about global economic growth increased, and the Bank of Japan steps to reduce interest rates have not been able to change the trend of the movement of the yen," - said analyst Joe Manimbo Western Union.

The attention of investors is also switched on Yellen speech, which will be held on Wednesday and Thursday. If Yellen will signal the likelihood that the Fed will not raise rates this year, the dollar will likely continue to decline against the yen. In general, analysts believe that the performance Yellen will be neutral and wait to confirm the Fed's position. However, it is likely to once again demonstrate the optimistic view on the economy and inflation, although emphasize intensified the uncertainty of the forecast. The tone of speech Yellen is likely to be "dovish" that confirms a reduced likelihood of a rate hike in March. According to CME, futures on the Fed show only 2% probability of a rate hike in March and 4% chance in April.

The pound depreciated significantly against the dollar, approaching to a minimum on February 2 as the flight of investors from the risks of reduced demand for high-risk currency. Little influenced by data on Britain. As shown by a study conducted in Britain, the confidence of local companies fell to a 3-year low against the background of instability in world markets due to concerns about the Chinese economy, and falling oil prices. Also on the trust put pressure Brekzita concerns. The index of business optimism BDO touched lows in 2013. BDO Analysts said that the results of the study showed that companies expect a slowdown of production to levels below the long-term trend. "The problems of the world economy put pressure on business confidence and increase the uncertainty caused by the upcoming referendum", said representative of BDO Peter Hemington.

The euro rose against the dollar significantly, returning with all the previously lost positions. Analysts say that the fall of the stock markets and oil has increased the attractiveness of the euro as a funding currency. Part of statistics have affected the course of trading. The survey results from the Sentix showed that investor confidence indicator fell to 6 in February from 9.6 in January. According to the forecast index was down to 7.2. It was the lowest rate since April 2015. The index of current conditions survey fell to 10.5 (the lowest rate since April 2015) compared to 13 points in January. At the same time, the expectations index showed a sharp drop to 1.5 from 6.3 a month ago. It was the lowest since November 2014. Investor confidence in Germany has reached its weakest level since November 2014, investor sentiment index fell to 14.5 in February from 18.1 in January. The expectations index fell to -2.6 in February from 1.8 in January and the current situation index fell to 33 from 35.6 in January.

In addition, the report submitted by the Conference Board, showed that the index of conditions in the US labor market, representing a set of labor market indicators rose again in January. According to the data, the January index of conditions in the labor market increased to 128.93 compared to 127.71 in December. In annual terms, the index rose by 1.9%. "Employment Trends Index rose for the second month in a row, which reduces the likelihood of a further slowdown in employment growth, - said Gad Levanon, managing director of Macroeconomic Research Conference Board -. However, the component-time job in the industry sector fell sharply in January, as well it is one of the best leading indicators of employment growth, we will monitor it closely in the coming months. "

Market Focus

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  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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