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27.07.2015 12:15

European session review: the US dollar fell against most major currencies


8:00 Eurozone Change in volume of private sector credit, y / y in June 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%

8:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, y / y in June 5.0% 5.2% 5.0%

8:00 Germany IFO business climate index in July 107.5 107.2 108

8:00 Germany IFO current conditions index in July 113.1 113 113.9

8:00 Germany IFO expectations index July 102.1 101.8 102.4

10:00 UK Balance industrial orders Confederation of British Industry in July -7 -10

The euro rose sharply against the US currency, updating the maximum of 14 in July and briefly breaking the mark of $ 1.1100, which is mainly explained by the fall in the dollar Friday on weak data on home sales in the United States. Meanwhile, support for the euro has had a report on Germany. The research results presented by the Munich institute IFO, have shown that the index of business sentiment in Germany rose unexpectedly in July, recording the first increase since April. According to the data, the July business climate index rose to 108.0 level against 107.5 in June (revised from 107.4). The latter value was the highest since May this year. Analysts had expected the index to fall to 107.2 points. The current conditions index from the IFO rose in July by 0.8 points, to 113.9 points, while the expectations index jumped to 102.4 points from 102.1 (revised from 102.0). It forecasts a decline of data rate to 113 and 101.8, respectively. "Business expectations were somewhat more optimistic, after declining for three consecutive months. The recent easing concerns about Greece helped to improve sentiment," - said in a press release IFO.

Focus has also proved statistics for the euro area. A report published by the ECB showed that the growth rate of the monetary aggregate M3 remained in June at 5.0%. Experts expect that this figure will increase by 5.2%. In the period from April to June, the average annual growth rate of M3 was 5.1%. Regarding the main components of M3, the growth rate of M1 increased to 11.8% in June from 11.2% in May. The growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) amounted to -4.3% in June, against -4.2% in the previous month. We also learned that the annual growth rate of deposits placed by households stood at 3.0% in June compared with 2.9% in the previous month, while the annual growth rate of deposits placed by non-financial corporations slowed to 4.2% from 4.3% in May. Meanwhile, the ECB reported that the growth rate of credit to the government accelerated to 5.3% from 4.1% in May, while the pace of lending to the private sector slowed to 0.1% from 0.2%.

The yen appreciated strongly against the dollar, reaching the highest level since July 15 as the drop in the Chinese stock markets increased the attractiveness of the yen as a currency of refuge. In addition, the decline has intensified due to the reduction in price of the dollar. Also, investors are waiting for the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the publication of US GDP data. Tomorrow begins a two-day meeting of the Committee on Open Market Federal Reserve, which will discuss the rise in interest rates and the economy. The Central Bank of the United States can provide more information about its intentions regarding the increase in US interest rates. The Fed signaled that interest rates may increase in September, but investors predict that the central bank is likely to take effect at the December meeting. Rising interest rates in the United States will make the dollar more attractive to investors.

The pound has stabilized near the opening levels against the dollar, as investors take a wait and see stance ahead of the release of tomorrow's GDP report Britain. According to economists, the UK economy is likely to grow much more rapidly in the 2nd quarter after a slight delay in the start of the year. According to the forecast, the UK GDP in the 2nd quarter grew by 0.7% against growth of 0.4% in the 1st quarter.

A slight pressure is applied to the data from the CBI, which showed that the expectations of new orders in the industrial sector in Britain fell unexpectedly in July, reaching a minimum value in the past two years, mainly due to the effect of strengthening the pound on export performance. According to the balance of industrial orders fell this month to a level of -10 compared to -7 in July. The last reading was the lowest since July 2013. Economists had expected the balance slightly improved - to -5. However, the rate is still above the long-term average at -15. Quarterly Review of CBI pointed to the gloomy prospects for the manufacturers. Expectations regarding the volume of export orders in the next three months fell to the lowest level since October 2011.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.1115

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair has updated the maximum and minimum, and then stabilized near the opening level

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y123.15

At 12:30 GMT the United States will report on orders for durable goods, including excl rd transport in June.

27.07.2015 12:00


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