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15.07.2015 18:01

American focus: the dollar strengthened significantly against most major currencies

The dollar strengthened sharply against the euro, approaching to a maximum of 7 July, which was related to statements of Fed Yellen and publication of data on the United States. Today, Fed Chairman Yellen reiterated that the Central Bank may raise interest rates this year if the economy will maintain its current rate of growth. "If the economy develops as we expect it, then most likely, the economic conditions at some point in the current year will be appropriate to increase the interest rates on federal credit funds", - said Yellen. She also expressed the view that the pace of US economic growth will increase in the second half of the year, while the unemployment rate will continue to decline gradually. She added that the situation in the labor market has improved significantly, but the FOMC does not consider it appropriate criteria of maximum employment. Yellen also noted tentative signs of recovery in the growth rate of wages, although it is recognized that they still remain relatively low, supporting other signs of a sagging economy. The head of the Federal Reserve suggested that the debt crisis in Greece and the situation on the stock market in China may carry risks for the United States. However, it noted the likelihood that global economic growth will be stronger than the average expected by experts that will provide additional support for economic activity in the United States.

With regard to statistics, the Fed reported that manufacturing in the last month, with the exception of car production increased by 0.3 percent after falling 0.1 percent. Total industrial production, which also includes mining and utilities rose 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent decline. Production of utilities increased 1.5 percent after rising 1.2 percent the previous month. Production in mining, which includes oil drilling, increased by 1 percent after falling 2.1 percent. Drilling of oil and gas wells fell by 3.7 percent after falling 8.7 percent. The median forecast of economists called for an increase of 0.2 percent in industrial production. Fed report also showed that capacity utilization rose to 78.4 percent compared with 78.2 percent a month ago.

The Canadian dollar depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since March 2009, which was caused by the unexpected decision of the Bank of Canada rate. Recall, the Bank of Canada announced reduction of rates by 0.25% to 0.50%., Citing a significant effect on the reduction in price of oil and the deterioration of the export of goods, not including the energy sector. It is worth emphasizing, expectations for rates before the meeting split exactly in half. In an accompanying statement, the regulator has also revised forecasts for GDP for the 2nd quarter, as well as 2015-2016 downward. Central Bank reported that the forecasts for economic growth in Canada in 2015 were substantially reduced from the April estimates, and also referred to the slowing global economy, particularly the US and China. However, the Bank expects renewed growth in the 3rd quarter. Central Bank considered that at this point, additional monetary stimulus to help the economy confidently embark on growth and inflation to return to target levels that are projected to happen in the 1st half of 2017. Meanwhile, the head of the Bank of Canada Poloz said that QE is included in the arsenal of tools that may, if necessary to involve the Central Bank. However, he added, the Central Bank expects that the use of other monetary policy instruments will be required.

The Swiss franc declined against the US currency, updating a minimum of 27 of May. In the course of trading influenced the widespread strengthening of the US dollar and weak data on Switzerland. As previously reported, in July 2015 the index of investor expectations in Switzerland ZEW-CS decreased. The indicator dropped by 5.5 points and now stands at minus 5.4 points value. This reading indicates that slightly larger share of financial experts expect the Swiss economy is getting worse, compared with the current situation. ZEW-CS indicator reflects the expectations of surveyed financial market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-month period. It is calculated monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS), Zurich. Estimates of the current economic situation in Switzerland are slightly more positive in July compared with the previous month. The corresponding indicator increased by 1.4 points. Nevertheless, the indicator "balance of performance" is clearly in the negative area with a -21.6 reading.

15.07.2015 16:35

WSE: Session Results

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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