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12.06.2015 18:20

American focus: the euro rose

During the US session, the Forex market the euro rose against the US dollar despite the vyod positive US data. US Producer Price Index increased by the end of May, thus exceeding the assessment of experts, which helped to increase the cost of energy. The Labor Department reported, the May producer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5%, offsetting a decline of 0.4% recorded in April. The main index, which excludes prices of food and energy, rose 0.1%. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, producer price index fell by 0.1%. Economists had expected overall prices to rise 0.4%, while the benchmark - by 0.1%. Compared to May last year, the overall producer price index fell by 1.1%, confirming the predictions of experts and recorded a fourth consecutive decline. Basic prices, meanwhile, rose 0.6% vs. + 0.8% in April and expectations at + 0.7%.

Preliminary results presented Thomson-Reuters and Institute of Michigan, showed in June US consumers felt more optimistic about the economy than last month. According to published data, in June consumer sentiment index rose to 94.6 points compared to the final reading for May at around 90.7 points. According to experts the average index was up to 91.5 points.

As for news from Greece, yesterday the IMF representative Gerry Rice said that the IMF and Greece broke technical talks due to serious disagreements. "Between us, there are many contradictions in the key moments. Progress in reducing these differences in recent years have been reported," - he said. Rice also said that the stumbling block in the negotiations of the IMF, the EU and Greece on the unfreezing of financial aid to the country, still, is the pension system, which has become unaffordable for the Greek economy. Later, the official representative of the Greek Government Sakellaridis Gabriel said that the Greek delegation is ready to resume negotiations with creditors for a speedy agreement.

Meanwhile, today it became known that the German government is considering a plan of action in the event of a Greek default and the steps that need to be taken in this case. This writes the German newspaper Bild, citing sources familiar with the situation. The article said that Germany is actively discussing various measures, including the introduction in Greece of capital controls, and the ability to write off the debt of Athens. Bild also reported that representatives of the Cabinet to exchange views with experts from the ECB.

Also today, the head of the Eurogroup Deysselblum said that Greece must be ready to apply "tough measures" in order to reach agreement with the creditors. He added that an agreement is possible if the "create a proper foundation."

The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar, recouping almost all the ground lost earlier today. Support for the new currency was forecast from the Institute KOF. Recall now the Swiss Economic Institute KOF raised its forecast for economic growth, but revised down estimates for inflation. KOF experts believe that this year's GDP growth will remain at a low level (0.4 per cent) due to the strong Swiss franc and the relative weakness of the global economy. Recall that in March the review is expected to expand the economy by 0.2 percent. In the medium term, the economy is likely to accelerate the pace of growth by improving the economic situation in Europe. The growth forecast for 2016 was revised to 1.3 percent from 1 percent.

The KOF expects that in 2015, export growth will remain weak (at 1.5 percent), while the rate of increase of imports will be more significant (3 percent this year and 3.8 percent next year) .

The report also noted that because of the deteriorating employment prospects, unemployment is likely to rise during the second half of 2015. It is expected that the unemployment rate will rise to 3.3 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year.

Meanwhile, in the KOF said that the decline in prices is likely to continue. According to the forecasts, consumer prices fall 1.1 percent in 2015 instead of the 0.8 percent decline expected in March. For 2016, experts expect a decline in prices of 0.3 percent compared to the previous estimate at 0.0 percent.

The pound retreated from a low against the dollar, rising to $ 1.5600. Moderate influenced by data on the volume of construction in Britain. The Office for National Statistics reported in April 2015 in the construction industry output in Britain fell 0.8% after increasing 1.4% in March. It was expected that the rate will increase by 0.1%. The volume of repair and maintenance decreased by 4.8%, while the construction of new facilities increased by 1.6%. Recall the construction of 6.4 per cent of the UK economy. The second estimate for the change in the gross domestic product in the 1st quarter, published on May 28 showed that the volume of construction fell by 1.1 percent. However, given that the ONS has changed the method of calculating the price changes in the construction sector and the method of seasonal adjustment data, the decline in construction volumes was revised up to 0.2 percent. Given the new technique, the rate of economic growth in the UK last year and in early 2015 were higher than expected in the ONS said that GDP grew by 3.1 percent in 2014 compared to the previous reading of 2.8 percent. Meanwhile, today it became known that in annual terms, construction output rose in April by 1.5 percent compared to an increase of 5.0 percent in March and forecast of 0.5 percent.

Market Focus

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  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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