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07.04.2015 15:40

Oil: а review of the market situation

Oil prices rose moderately, while continuing yesterday's increase, due to the anticipation of the publication of data on oil reserves in the United States, as well as statements by the Fed.

It should be emphasized earlier today the price of Brent crude oil slipped more than 1% after the Iranian representatives to visit Beijing after reaching an agreement on its nuclear program last week. The agreement paved the way for increasing the supply of Iranian oil, but analysts believe that the increase in the volume of exports would take months.

Traders are waiting for data from the US Department of Energy, which will be released on Wednesday, to understand whether the achieved production and peak oil. According to analysts last week, US crude stocks rose to record highs 13th consecutive week, while gasoline inventories fell. If it does not, the rise in prices could stall.

With regard to the statements on the eve of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart expressed the view that the Fed should raise no earlier than the July meeting. "I am inclined to lift rates at the July or September meeting, but not at the June - he said. - By this time, we will have more information and we will give the economy a little more time to prove that the first quarter of this year was abnormal" . Meanwhile, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Narayana Kocherlakota said that the Fed should "be very patient in terms of reductions in incentive" and raising rates this year would be a "mistake."

Small effect has also had a report from Goldman Sachs, which reported that US crude stocks will peak in April and May and September will decline by an average of 350,000 barrels per day, because these months have peak consumption. Since October stocks will rise again, keeping prices at a low level until the beginning of 2016, the bank said in a report. "For a sufficient and stable production slowdown in the United States requires that prices were low in the coming months," - wrote analysts Goldman Sachs.

Higher prices for WTI brand also contributes to the end of maintenance work at refineries and oil refining growth before the summer increase in demand for fuel.

May futures for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 53.11 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

May futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of Brent increased by $ 0.76 to 58.40 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

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  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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