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27.03.2015 16:40

Oil: а review of the market situation

Oil prices fell today, dropping below $ 58 (Brent) and $ 50 (WTI), as fears of a disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East because of the conflict in Yemen began to decline, and the focus shifted to the Iranian "nuclear deal" which will take place next week and could increase the supply of oil to the world market.

Since the beginning of the week the price of Brent crude rose more than 4 percent, while WTI oil rose by 9 percent. Most analysts surveyed by expected growth in oil prices next week. 18 out of 35 experts predict a rise in the market, 12 - reduced.

Today, Goldman Sachs analysts said that taking place in Yemen fighting will have little impact on oil supplies. According to them, the country is a small exporter of black gold - mining Yemen is 145 thousand barrels per day. "Yemen - small manufacturer. The rise in prices has raised fears of a possible escalation of hostilities and the transition towards the Strait of Bab el Mandeb," - said analysts.

As for the situation with Iran, experts say ANZ: "a real problem for the oil market is now Iran, negotiations on its nuclear program which reached a decisive stage." "Growing expectations that the transaction between the parties will be concluded by the end of March. Details of a potential agreement is not fully disclosed, but it is clear that the lifting of sanctions could have huge implications for the oil market. Iran currently exports about 1 million barrels. of oil per day, but at different moments of the past year produced more than 3 million. bbl. / day. So, after the sanction will be removed, Iran will not only be able to immediately increase exports, but also to maintain it at a level much higher than the current ", - said the ANZ. However, Goldman Sachs analysts and ANZ note that if Iran and increase exports it is not until the second half of the year.

Little impact on prices also have previously presented data on oil reserves in the United States. Recall, US crude inventories last week increased by 8.2 million barrels and reached 466.7 million barrels, which is a record amount since the beginning of tracking such data in August 1982. Production rose to 9.42 million barrels per day - maximum since January 1983.

May futures for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) dropped to 49.94 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

May futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mix fell $ 0.90 to 57.90 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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