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10.02.2015 16:40

Oil: a review of the market situation

Oil futures fell modestly today, breaking a three-day rally at the same time, which was caused by reports by the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as concerns about slowing growth in China.

Today, the IEA said that oil production in the fields with hard to recover reserves in the United States by the end of 2020 will increase to 5.2 million barrels per day (b / d) from last year's level of 3.6 million. The IEA expects to maintain a surplus of oil in the world to the middle of this year, when its reserves in industrialized countries can come close to the historical record of 2.83 billion barrels of that recorded in August 1998. The IEA also noted that the oil market goes lower point, and raw materials will start to go up, though restrained pace. According to experts of the agency, in the second half of the excess supply will start to decline, and the market will gradually recover against the backdrop of slowing growth in oil production in the world.

It is worth emphasizing that the forecast by the IEA is markedly different from yesterday's report of OPEC, which experts said that the demand for oil cartel will grow this year against the background of reduction in the rate of production growth in the US, which proves the correctness of the chosen company policy to reduce prices to suppress competition and recovery demand for oil. According to the monthly report of the OPEC cartel's oil demand in 2015 will grow by about 110,000 barrels per day to 29.2 million barrels a day. Previously, the forecast was adjusted in the direction of growth in demand for 400,000 barrels per day.

Also, market participants analyze the report on China, which showed that the consumer price index in January rose by 0.8% compared to the same period of the previous year against growth of 1.5% in December. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.1%. Consumer price inflation in China fell to a 5-year low in January, reinforcing fears of deflation, while the growth of China's economy slows. Low inflation gives the central bank more room for further easing of monetary policy to stimulate the sluggish economy.

The course of trade is also affected by expectations of tomorrow's publication of data on oil reserves. "Progress report on a significant increase in US oil inventories can stop the growth of prices", - the bank's analysts wrote ANZ. It is expected that the results of last week's oil reserves rose by 3.8 million., While setting a new record high.

March futures price for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) dropped to 50.73 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

March futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mix fell to $ 0.72 to $ 57.07 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • Euro Area trade balance surplus declined significantly in August
  • Consumer prices in China were up 1.6 percent on year in September,
  • US consumer sentiment surged in early October, reaching its highest level since the start of 2004 says UoM
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
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