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28.01.2015 16:40

Oil: A review of the market situation

Prices for WTI moderately decreased, approaching the level of $ 45 per barrel, which is associated with the release of data on oil reserves in the United States, as well as the strengthening of the US dollar.

US Department of Energy announced that commercial oil stocks rose 8.9 million barrels to 406.7 million barrels, compared to the average forecast of four million. Barrels. The latter value was the highest for the entire period of statistics with the US Department of Energy in August 1982. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories fell 2.6 million barrels to 238.3 million barrels. Analysts had expected growth to 400,000 barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 3.9 million barrels to 132.7 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decline of 1.6 million barrels. Utilization rate of refining capacity rose by 2.5 percentage points to 88%. Analysts expected the growth rate by 0.1 percentage points.

Yesterday the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude stocks rose by 12.7 million barrels to 405.1 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 23. According to the API, gasoline inventories fell by 5 million barrels, while distillate stocks - by 670,000 barrels. Analysts speculated that oil reserves will rise by 4.1 million barrels, gasoline inventories rise by 300,000 barrels, while distillate inventories decreased by 1.7 million.

The course of trade is also affected by expectations of the outcome of the meeting of the Fed's monetary policy, which is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged. Investors will closely monitor the FOMC statement for indications that interest rates will remain unchanged at near zero for some time to come.

Market participants also drew attention to the updated forecasts for oil prices from Barclays and UBS. «In the next few months, we expect a further decline in prices - the head of Barclays Commodities Research Michael Cohen. - To the extent that Brent, WTI and will be traded just below $ 40 a barrel. After that, the fall can be stopped. "Compared with the December forecast average annual cost of both brands of oil decreased by 1.6 times: by Brent - from $ 72 to $ 44, according to WTI - from $ 66 to $ 42 per barrel.

Meanwhile, UBS expects that this year mark WTI will cost an average of $ 49 per barrel compared with the previous forecast of $ 64.75 per barrel. Evaluation for 2016 decreased to $ 62.5 per barrel from $ 75. The average price of Brent, the expected in 2015 will be $ 52.5 per barrel compared to the previously forecasted $ 69.75 per barrel. 2016 outlook deteriorated to $ 67.5 from $ 80.

March futures price for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) dropped to 45.23 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

March futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of Brent increased by $ 0.10 to $ 49.37 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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