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14.01.2015 16:40

Oil: a review of the market situation

Oil prices retreated from a session low, but still continue to show a moderate decline. Support oil had weaker dollar on the report on retail sales. Meanwhile, the growth of prices holding back a report on US crude stocks.

As previously reported, the US retail sales fell in December by 0.9% compared to the previous month. This is the maximum reduction from January 2014. Analysts had expected the rate increase by 0.2%. We also add that in November, according to revised data, retail sales rose by 0.4%, not 0.7% as previously indicated. Drop in sales last month was noted in 9 of the 13 major categories of retail goods, including electronics and clothing. According to experts, Americans prefer to postpone, rather than spend the money saved on the fall in fuel prices. To increase consumer demand in the United States requires further improvement in the labor market, as well as an increase in salaries. By the end of 2014 total retail sales in the US rose by 4%.

As for the report on reserves, it has shown that commercial oil reserves in the US last week rose to 5389 thousand. Barrels - up to 387,782 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 3,171 thousand. Barrels and amounted to 240,334 million barrels. Commercial distillate inventories rose by 2,925 thousand. Barrels, reaching 139,851 million barrels. Economists had expected an increase of oil reserves by 1750 thousand. Barrels, gasoline inventories increase at 3,750 th. Barrels and distillate stocks increase for 2100 thousand. Barrels.

Market participants also analyzed the last monthly report from the US Department of Energy on the short-term prospects for the oil market. According to analysts, this year the average price of WTI crude oil amount to 54.58 dollar against 93.26 dollars in 2014. December forecast assumes that the average price of WTI crude oil this year reached 62.75 dollars. Ministry unveiled forecasts for 2016. It is expected that next year the average price of WTI crude oil amount to $ 71.

In addition, the Ministry of Energy expects the average price of Brent crude oil in 2015 and in 2016 reached 57.58 dollars and $ 75, respectively, against 99.02 dollars last year. December forecast assumes that the average price of Brent crude oil will make 68.08 dollars this year.

Impact on world oil prices also continued to weak outlook from Goldman Sachs. Bank experts expect lower prices for WTI at six months and a year to 39 and 65 dollars per barrel 75 and $ 80 per barrel, respectively. Forecasts for Brent reduced to $ 43 per barrel for six months and $ 70 per barrel for the year to 85 and $ 90 per barrel, respectively. Analysts Societe Generale also worsened the outlook for oil prices in 2015: $ 15 - up to $ 55 per barrel.

The cost of the February futures on US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) dropped to 45.90 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mix fell $0.38 to $ 46.33 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

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  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
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