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02.01.2015 16:40

Oil: a review of the market situation

The price of oil continued to decline today, while reaching the lowest level since May 2009 (WTI) amid rising supplies from Russia and Iraq, as well as the decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector in China and Europe.

"The increase in production in North America was a key event last year - said Michael Haile of LPS Partners Inc. New York. - "As a result, the market has reached a tipping point, when production exceeds demand. It has a very negative impact on the economy of Russia, Iran, Venezuela. But it is clear that the global economy is a long-term positive factor. "

As it became known, the official index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in China in December fell to 50.1 against 50.3 in November. The index was above economists' forecasts of 50.0. The official PMI non-manufacturing areas of China in December was 54.1 versus 53.9 in November.

Meanwhile, the euro zone manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace than previously estimated in December, showed the final data from Markit Economics. The final manufacturing purchasing managers index, or PMI Eurozone rose to 50.6, which is less than was originally estimated 50.8 points from 50.1 in November. Production increased at the slowest speed in the current period, half of the annual expansion. New orders rebounded slightly after four months of decline. "Performance in the three largest economies remained restrained in December," said Markit, while the manufacturing industry in France and Italy continued to decline, and the activity in Germany remained low.

Market participants also continued to analyze data on oil reserves in the United States. Recall commercial oil reserves in the US last week fell by 1,754 thousand. Barrels - up to 385,455 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 2,951 thousand. Barrels and amounted to 229,048 million barrels. Commercial distillate inventories rose by 1,874 thousand. Barrels, reaching 125,721 million. Barrels. Economists had expected an increase of oil reserves by 900 thousand. Barrels, gasoline inventories growth for 2000 thousand. Barrels and distillate stocks increase for 2000 thousand. Barrels.

On the dynamics of trade have also influenced the US PMI data. A report published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), showed that in December, activity in the US manufacturing sector has deteriorated, and was lower than the forecasts of economists who had expected only a slight reduction in the index. PMI index for the US manufacturing fell in December to 55.5 against 58.7 in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of industrial activity. Note that the last value was below the estimates of experts - is expected to decrease to 58.6.

The cost of the February futures on US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) dropped to 53.20 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mix fell $ 0.53 to $ 56.81 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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