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16.12.2014 16:20

Gold: a review of the market situation

Gold prices fell sharply, losing the position of all previously earned and again fell below $ 1,200. Experts point out that gold could come under pressure in the conditions of market expectations the Fed's monetary policy. Talk about the fact that the central bank may abandon his former statement, which said that rates will remain near zero "for an extended period of time," on Wednesday, supported the US dollar and damaged precious metals in recent days. Gold, which does not bring interest income, can hardly compete with the assets generating interest income when interest rates rise.

"The market will be unstable if the central bank will not abandon the phrase" considerable time ", - said an analyst at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Victor Tyanpiriya.

According to the analyst Edward Meir INTL FCStone, the Fed will leave in a statement the phrase "considerable time" to give yourself time to evaluate the impact of the slow growth of the world economy on the US economy. "If our estimates are correct, the dollar will weaken, and commodity markets rise, so we prefer to hold long positions on the eve of the statement" - wrote Meir in the report.

The course of trading also influenced today's data for Germany and the eurozone. Recall confidence in the German economy rose to its highest level since May 2014. The indicator of economic sentiment rose sharply by 23.4 points to 34.9 in December. It was the second consecutive growth and index reached its highest level since May 2014.

"This increase is due to favorable economic conditions, such as a weak euro and low price of oil," said ZEW President Prof. Clemens Fuest. Assessment of the current situation rose by 6.7 points to 10 points in December. It was expected that the evaluation will rise to 5. sentiment indicator in the euro area rose by 20.8 points to 31.8 points in December. At the same time, the indicator of the current situation declined by 3.1 points to minus 62.8 points.

Meanwhile, a report on the euro area showed that private sector growth accelerated more than expected, up to 2-month high in December. The composite output index increased to 51.7 in December, the highest value in two months, from 51.1 in November. Economists forecast that the PMI reached 51.5. In the service sector purchasing managers index rose to 51.9 from 51.1 a month ago. Evaluation, according to forecasts, should increase to 51.6. The result also noted 2-month high. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI rose to a 5-month high of 50.8 from 50.1 in November. Reading, is expected to grow to 50.5.

As for the situation in the physical markets, gold imports from India increased by 38 per cent in October, reaching 151.58 tons in November, according to data provided by the Ministry of Commerce.

The cost of the December gold futures on the COMEX today fell $ 10.5 to 1196.70 dollars per ounce.

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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