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18.11.2014 16:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Oil prices fell today, fixing at this sixth drop in the last seven trading sessions, due to the uncertainty regarding the decision of OPEC.

Lately, there are more speculation that during the meeting the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not reduce output to support prices. Add oil ministers of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are against reducing production, while Libya, Venezuela, Ecuador and insist on taking measures to prevent a further fall in prices.

"The probability of reducing the OPEC production is approaching 50 percent. Trips of several participants indicate an active preparatory work on the eve of the meeting, "- said the analyst A / S Global Risk Management Michael Poulsen.

Recall OPEC oil ministers scheduled a meeting in Vienna on November 27 during which intend to consider the advisability of adjusting current output at 30 million barrels per day at the beginning of 2015.

Pressure on prices has also had a decision of the Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe to dissolve parliament and hold early elections, according to the auction. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday held a press conference at which he stated that on November 21 dissolve the parliament to hold early elections. However, he did not mention the exact date of the elections. Japanese media converge on the fact that the vote will likely take place on December 14th.

In addition, Abe said that he suspended unpopular program of increasing the consumption tax. The second phase of the program: the increase of the tax rate from 8% to 10%, will be delayed by 18 months to October 2015. The first phase, held in April, is considered one of the main causes of the current economic recession in Japan. However, Prime Minister promised that this postponement will be the first and last. He believes that he can create the conditions that will increase the tax in April 2017.

Meanwhile, traders are awaiting the release of fresh US data on stocks of crude oil and refined products to gauge the strength of demand in the world's largest oil consumer. According to forecasts, the government report will show that crude oil reserves fell by 1.2 mln. Barrels in the week ended November 14th.

Cost January futures on US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 74.88 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

January futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell $ 0.52 to $ 78.56 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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