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17.11.2014 16:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Prices for crude oil West Texas Intermediate and Brent fell today, came under pressure on Japan data, which indicated a fall in GDP in the last quarter. Recall that in the 3rd quarter of 2014 Japan's GDP contracted by 1.6% in annual terms. Analysts on average had forecast GDP growth of 2.1%. Thus, the Japanese economy - the third largest economy in the world - suddenly slipped into recession in July-September of 2014, a decrease in the second quarter in a row. According to revised data, in the second quarter decline of the Japanese economy reached 7.3% and not 7.1%, as previously reported. GDP decline in April-June was the highest in five years. The fall in GDP at the end of two consecutive quarters indicates technical recession in the economy.

The focus of investors is also the situation in the countries of OPEC, whose representatives in recent days have stepped up negotiations on the eve of the meeting of 27 November. Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are against reducing production, while Libya, Venezuela, Ecuador and insist on taking measures to prevent a further fall in prices. Experts note that the sharp decline in oil production quotas that can normalize the balance of supply and demand and to stabilize prices, it seems unlikely. In JPMorgan believe that oil prices could fall to $ 70 a barrel and even touch the level of 65 dollars in early January next year. Such a fall in oil prices would happen if at the November meeting, OPEC decides to cut production quotas.

Pressure on prices also have data on manufacturing activity from the New York Fed. According to the report, the manufacturing index this month rose to 10.16 points against 6.17 points in October. Note the previous value has not been reviewed. Economists had forecast growth of the index to the level of 12.1 points. In general, the sub-indices showed themselves as follows: selling prices index in November fell to 0.00 against 6.82 in October, the employment index fell to 8.51 against 10.23 in October, and the new orders index rose to 9, 14 -1.73. "The general business conditions index shows that business activity in New York in November, producers continues to grow somewhat more rapidly than in the past month. Nevertheless, in October and November, the index readings indicate a reduced rate of growth compared to the period from May to September, when the index was the average level of about 20 points, "- said in a report.

Cost January futures on US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 75.24 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

January futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell $ 0.74 to $ 78.49 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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