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05.11.2014 16:41

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Oil futures rose today, departing from the four-year low, as the positive data on the US labor market offset the negative reports from the Chinese.

Recall, the growth of manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of Chinese industry slowed in October, showed indices PMI, calculated HSBC / Markit. Meanwhile, it has become known, private sector employment increased by 230,000 jobs from September to October. It was expected that the figure will rise to 214 thousand.

Market participants also drew attention to the report on US crude stocks. US Department of Energy reported that in the week of 25 - Oct 31 commercial oil stocks rose 460,000 barrels to 380.2 million barrels, while the average forecast of anticipated increase of 2.2 million barrels. Inventories increased to a maximum of 4 July. Gasoline stocks fell 1.4 million barrels to 201.8 million barrels (minimum of 16 November 2012). Analysts expected gasoline stocks decline as compared to the previous week to 300,000 barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 724,000 barrels to 119,7,4 million barrels, up to a minimum since June 6, while analysts had expected a decrease of 1.8 million barrels. The utilization factor of refining capacity increased to 88.4% for the first 6 weeks. Earlier, analysts expected increase index by 0.3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, today intensified speculation in reducing production by OPEC. Leading oil traders believe that OPEC will reduce oil production at its meeting in November, despite the forecasts of analysts not to expect changes in the policy of the cartel. OPEC members Kuwait and Iran have stated that the organization is unlikely to cut production at a meeting on November 27. The largest OPEC exporter Saudi Arabia has not yet made a public statement on the matter, but analysts believe that the country will not cut production to maintain world prices and is ready to accept the price of oil at $ 70-80 per barrel.

The market also continues to affect the forecast decline in the economic growth of the eurozone by the European Commission. "Reducing the forecast for Europe was not unexpected, but reminded of the existence of risks. I think in this situation, oil prices should fall so to change the scope of supply. But how can cut prices, no one knows, "- said a senior analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney Rick Spooner.

The cost of December futures on US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 78.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

December futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose $ 0.62 to $ 83.22 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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