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20.10.2014 15:20

Gold: an overview of the market situation

Gold prices rose markedly today, breaking a series of two-day decline, as the decline in the European stock market has heightened interest in the metal as an alternative asset. Gold has also received support from the dollar index falling 0.15% - to the level of 85.19. A weak dollar tends to increase the demand for gold, as it increases the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers in other currencies.

"We think that gold will meet strong resistance at $ 1,250, and the level of support in the near future will be $ 1.220-1.225", - said the dealer MKS Group Sam Laughlin, adding that prices could fall to $ 1,200 with the improvement in the global economy.

The rise in prices is also associated with speculation that a weaker-than-expected growth in the global economy and its impact on the economy of the United States could force the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates.

Investors also await the publication of a series of Chinese economic indicators that prompt relative strength of the economic recovery and the future path of monetary policy. Tomorrow China will release data on GDP growth in the third quarter, as well as reports on industrial production, retail sales and investment in fixed assets in September. It is expected that the economy grew by 7.2%, after +7.5% in the 2nd quarter.

It should be emphasized that many experts are increasingly put on the rise in gold prices. In the week before October 14 the number of net long positions increased by 12 thousand. Contracts to 42.2 thousand., Which is the highest level for the last five weeks. Meanwhile, the world's largest reserves of the gold-exchange trading fund SPDR Gold Trust rose last week by 1.5 tons, registering the first weekly inflow since early September. Experts note the duration of this trend will depend on the dynamics of the dollar and the situation on the stock markets. In addition, it is unclear how strong is the demand for physical gold in India this week, according to this, it is likely that prices will drop a bit.

The cost of the December gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1244.40 dollars per ounce.

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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