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06.10.2014 15:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

The cost of oil futures fell slightly today, due to the still high rate of the American currency and an abundance of oil in the world market.

It is worth emphasizing that the dollar is close to a four-year maximum to a basket of six major currencies. Experts expect that the Fed could start raising interest rates by mid-2015, based on the good performance of the labor market. Presented data on Friday showed that the number of jobs in the United States in September grew by 248,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent, the lowest level since July 2008.

"High volume production push down oil prices with a view to preserving the low demand for the weakening in global economic recovery," - said a senior resource analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. in Seoul, Hong Sung Ki.

Experts point out that in recent months the world's supply significantly exceeds demand, sparking speculation among traders that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce production to keep prices high. New arguments in favor of this step may appear this week in the form of regular monthly reports US Energy Information Administration and OPEC is likely that they will again be lowered forecasts for global oil demand. Data released last week showed that the production of OPEC countries reached in September two-year high of 31 million barrels per day.

"I believe that the price of Brent dropped enough: $ 90 - this is the minimum price at which Saudi Arabia can keep public spending at current levels. For countries such as Iran and Russia, oil prices are already below the level needed to maintain government spending ", - said economist Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo Tony Noonan. -" Despite all the geopolitical risks, the market is still too much oil. This continues the past six months but ahead of winter - high season. "

The cost of the November futures for the American light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 89.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

November futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell $ 0.48 to $ 91.53 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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