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24.09.2014 15:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Oil prices declined moderately today, reaching its lowest level in the last two years, as rising supplies from Africa and Iraq offset concerns about the situation in the Middle East. Add this quarter the price of oil has fallen by about 14 percent, which is the largest decline since the second quarter of 2012.

But, in spite of the fall in prices, the World Bank analysts said that, according to forecasts, the average price of oil on the world market will not fall below $ 100 per barrel in 2014-2015. "We expect the recent trends in the oil market and forecast the average price of oil at $ 103 per barrel in 2014 and $ 100 per barrel in 2015," - the report says the World Bank. In the long term, according to experts of the international organization, it is expected a decline in oil prices in real terms due to the increase in the supply of crude oil produced in unconventional ways, and the use of alternative fuels. The World Bank also expects that in 2014 global oil demand will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching 92.7 million barrels per day in 2014 and 94 million barrels per day in 2015. On the supply side is expected to increase the volume of oil production in Iraq and Libya.

The fall in prices has also been associated with weak European data. Recall yesterday's report showed that the composite PMI index of euro zone, which combines service sector activity and production fell to a nine-month high of 52.3 from 52.5 in August. PMI for the services sector of the currency bloc deteriorated to three-month low of 52.8 from 53.1 in August, while the expected value of 53.0. Meanwhile, today's data showed in September business climate indicator from Germany IFO worsened for the fifth month in a row. Business Climate Index fell to 104.7 from 106.3 in August. Economists had expected a decline to 105.9.

Also today, it became known that commercial oil stocks in the United States last week fell to 4,273,000. Barrels - up to 357,998 million barrels. This was stated by the Ministry of Energy. Gasoline inventories decreased by 414 thousand. Barrels and reached 210,324 million barrels. Commercial distillate stocks rose by 823 thousand. Barrels, reaching 128,595 million barrels. Economists had expected an increase of oil reserves by 750 thousand. Barrels, gasoline inventories immutability and distillate stocks increase by 500 thousand. Barrels.

The cost of the November futures for the American light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 91.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

November futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell $ 0.70 to $ 96.06 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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