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12.08.2014 15:41

Oil: an overview of the market situation

The cost of oil futures fell sharply today, dropping at the same time below $ 104 per barrel, and the lowest level in nine months (grade Brent), as a stable supply dispelled concerns about potential disruptions from Iraq and Libya.

Today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global oil demand in 2014 will grow more slowly than previously expected, amid worsening global growth prospects. In addition, due to the fall in the rate of growth in oil demand in the 2nd quarter to lows for more than two years. In a new monthly report, the agency lowered the growth forecast for global oil demand this year to 1 million barrels a day, down 180,000 barrels below the earlier forecast. In the IEA's reference to the fact that the demand for oil in the 2nd quarter of this year was lower than previously expected. The report also stated that the volume of oil production in the OPEC in July rose by 300,000 barrels per day to 5-month high of 30.44 million barrels per day. This increase was made possible by an increase in production in Saudi Arabia (at 230,000 barrels per day to 10.01 million barrels a day, the maximum in September) and some recovery in oil production in Libya (up to 430,000 barrels per day).

Market participants are also waiting for data on the reduction of hydrocarbon reserves in the United States, which may indicate an increase in demand for fuel. Economists estimate that the inventory of oil in the United States dropped the seventh week in a row, decreasing by 1.75 million barrels to 363.9 million. Previous week stocks finished at their lowest level since Feb. 28. However, the expected decline in stocks and gasoline - by 1.5 million barrels to 212.3 million. But distillate inventories probably increased by 200 thousand. Barrels for the week.

On the dynamics of trading also reflected posts by rating agency Moody's Investors Service. In the current review, the agency said a slowdown in global GDP growth to 2.8% (below the long-term trend). However, in 2015 the rate of increase of the world's GDP accelerated to 3.2%. In the United States economy will add 2% this year and 3% next year, the euro zone - 1% and 1.5% respectively, "- believe in the agency." Slowing export growth will put pressure on developing countries in 2014 and in 2015 , but in developed countries, the rise in the next year will increase due to the increase of investment companies "- experts said Moody's.

The cost of the September futures for the American light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 97.26 a barrel and then dropped to $ 97.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture decreased by $ 1.2 to $ 103.33 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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