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04.08.2014 15:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

The price of oil rose slightly today, but continued to be near four-month low (grade Brent), as concerns about oversupply outweigh concerns about conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East.

Recall that the projections of a surplus of oil on the African and European markets unleashed Brent 3.3 percent last week, despite the geopolitical tensions in Iraq, Libya and Ukraine. Strong U.S. economic data showing that oil demand in the world's largest economy improves, failed to support prices.

"The downward pressure on oil prices is likely to continue," - said Rick Spooner of CMC Markets. - Geopolitical risk remains, but take into account the market risk premium in prices. "

In addition, the dynamics continue to impact data on oil and petroleum products in the United States. The Department of Energy reported that gasoline inventories in the country rose last week by 365 thousand barrels - up to 218.2 million barrels, the highest level in four months. With the average volume of gasoline consumption in the past four weeks declined, despite the peak driving season in the country, at 0.5% - to the lowest level since May.

However, market participants do not exclude the resumption of growth in oil prices. "Now that the EU and the United States took steps to close some Russian companies access to capital markets, it can cause a reduction in exports from Russia. This, as well as the situation in the Gaza Strip can support price Brent », - told Reuters Nomura analyst Gordon Kwan.

Moreover, experts say that the world has changed so OilMarket that Russia ceases to be a major player that dictates the price of oil.

Investors are also waiting for new statistical data from the United States, which must confirm the strengthening of the country's economy, which is the world's largest oil consumer. One of the most anticipated weeks of statistical reports is to publish an index of business activity in the service of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). According to forecasts, the figure rose in July to 56.6 points from 56.0 points in June. Recall value above 50 indicates an increase in activity.

The cost of the September futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 98.03 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose 23 cents to $ 105.09 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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