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25.07.2014 12:15

European session: the euro has fallen against the U.S. currency


1:00 New Zealand Business Confidence Index circles from ANZ July 42.8 39.7

06:00 Germany GfK consumer confidence in August from 8.9 8.9 9.0

08:00 EU M3 Money Supply y / y in June +1.0% +1.1% +1.5%

8:00 Eurozone private sector lending, y / y in June -2.0% -1.8% -1.0%

8:00 Germany IFO business climate index 109.7 109.6 108.0 July

8:00 The current conditions index Germany IFO July 114.8 112.9

8:00 Germany IFO Expectations Index 104.8 103.4 July

08:30 UK GDP q / q (preliminary data) II m +0.8% +0.8% +0.8%

08:30 UK GDP y / y (preliminary data) II m +3.0% +3.1% +3.1%

Rate of the euro fell sharply against the dollar was under pressure the German data. The findings, published institute Ifo, showed that the July level of business confidence in Germany fell again, thereby exceeded the forecasts of experts and fixing the third consecutive monthly deterioration. According to the report, the business climate index fell in July to a level of 108.0 points compared to 109.7 points last month, and economists' expectations at the level of 109.6 points. With regard to the current index, that he fell this month to the level of 112.9 points, which was also well below economists' expectations of 114.5 points. Recall that in June, the index stood at 114.8 points. We also learned that the expectations index deteriorated to 104.5 points, slightly exceeding the forecasts of experts 104.4 points. Last month, the value of this index was 104.8 points.

Report had little impact on the euro area, which indicated that money supply growth accelerated again in June, while lending to the private sector continued to fall. This was announced by the European Central Bank. According to the data, the results of last month monetary aggregate M3 increased by 1.5 percent year on year, which was significantly faster than the growth of 1 per cent recorded in May. Add that many experts had expected an increase of this index by 1.2 percent. While growth compared to May was markedly below the reference value of 4.5%, the ECB considers that in accordance with its medium-term in order to maintain the inflation rate "below 2%".

The pound has fallen significantly against the U.S. currency, updating the yesterday's low, but then was able to recover all the lost ground. Influenced the course of trade data, which showed that in the second quarter gross domestic product of Britain increased by 0.8 percent, which was in accordance with the result of the first quarter and economists' expectations. Compared to the second quarter last year, the economy grew by 3.1 percent, the highest rates since late 2007. This means that overall economic growth was 0.2 percent more than in the first quarter of 2008, when it was recorded the previous peak. We add that the annual growth also coincided with the estimates of experts, and accelerated compared with the previous quarter - while GDP grew by 3.0 percent. The Office for National Statistics also reported that the head of the growth in the second quarter was again the service sector, which expanded by 1.0 percent compared with the previous three months, and fixing the fastest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2012.

The yen fell against the dollar as market participants expect today's publication of data on the volume of sales of durable goods from the U.S. Commerce Department. According to the median forecast of economists in June could increase by 0.4%, after falling in the previous month. In addition, yesterday was presented positive data on employment. Number of new applications for unemployment benefits decreased significantly last week, reaching minimum values ​​at the same time for 8.5 years, providing more evidence in favor of improving the situation on the labor market.

We add that the demand for yen was limited after the publication of weak report on exports from Japan and negative data on the consumer price index. Value measure of inflation, adjusted for the effect of increasing the sales tax was lower than in the previous reporting month: +1.6% in June against 1.7% in May.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3440

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6959, but then went back up to $ 1.6985

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.93

At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the volume of orders for durable goods in June. At 13:00 GMT Belgium present index business sentiment in July.

25.07.2014 12:01


Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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