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22.07.2014 12:15

European session: the euro fell markedly against the U.S. currency


2:00 China Index of leading indicators in June +0.7% +1.3%

3:00 Australia Speech by RBA Glenn Stevens

4:30 Japan PMI in all sectors, m / m -4.3% May +0.7% +0.6%

6:00 Switzerland Trade Balance, 2.85 -2.97 1.37 billion

08:30 UK Net borrowing state. sector, 11.5 billion in June 10.3 9.5

10:00 UK factory orders balance of the Confederation of British Industry July 11 September 2

The euro exchange rate fell sharply against the dollar, falling under the 1.3500 mark, and hit a low for more than 5 months. Apparent fall was not the catalyst, but the couple did not responded to the growth of European stock markets. So, apparently, acted classical scheme: that can not grow up must come down. EUR / USD absorbed foot and a low of 1.3480, marked the beginning of February. It is not clear if the bears are ready to derail a couple of euros to 1.3400 - the next key support, as the single currency still shows decent resistance lately.

Meanwhile, adding that investors are waiting for today's publication of the inflation data. According to the median forecast of economists, the consumer price index in June will grow by 2.1% on an annualized basis. The value may be the highest since October 2012. Recall that in the beginning of last week, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said that interest rates may rise sooner than expected, if the economic recovery will continue to improve. Nevertheless, the Fed chief also said that if the recovery is disappointing, then monetary policy will remain accommodative. According to yesterday's publication of results of a survey of traders agency Bloomberg, at the moment there is 46% chance the Fed rate hike by June. Recall, June 30 a similar survey indicated a 40% chance.

Pound fell moderately, came under pressure amid a general strengthening of the dollar against European rivals. British data reflected the drop in public sector borrowing (PSNB) to £ 9.506 billion in June from £ 10.300 billion forecast, although pound for almost did not react. We also learned that Britain's budget deficit widened in the first three months of the fiscal year, as an increase in investment income was offset by a slight change. This was stated in the report submitted to the Office for National Statistics. According to reports, the UK's budget deficit increased to 36,100 billion pounds ($ 45.600 billion) in the three months fingoda (June), compared with 33.7 billion pounds in the same period last year. Higher spending on benefits, local governments and investment income offset rising by 1.6%. Meanwhile, it became known that the June budget deficit was at 11.4 billion pounds, compared with 11.5 billion pounds last year. Taking into account the transfers from the Bank of England, the budget deficit in June 2013 was 7.6 billion pounds.

The Japanese yen rose slightly against the U.S. dollar, approaching to the maximum since July 17. USD / JPY pair is attempting to find catalysts that will allow it to recover, and is scheduled for today a report by the U.S. CPI may be a factor in a significant move, especially if it confirms the growing price pressures noted in previous releases. Although the Fed prefers to refrain from any direct allusions to the time of the first rate hike, the market may find strong CPI argument in favor of earlier actions.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3476

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.7057

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.59

At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release the consumer price index and the core consumer price index for June. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will report on sales in the secondary market in June.

22.07.2014 12:00


Market Focus

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