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16.07.2014 12:03

Foreign exchange market. European session: the Swiss franc dropped against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected ZEW/ Credit Suisse index for economic expectations

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:30 Australia Leading Index May +0.1% +0.1%

02:00 China Retail Sales y/y June +12.5% +12.4%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y June +8.8% +9.0% +9.2%

02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment June +17.2% +17.2% +17.3%

02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter II +7.4% +7.4% +7.5%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report July

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y May +0.9% +0.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y May +0.7% +0.7% +0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count June -27.4 -27.1 -36.3

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate June 3.2% 3.2% 3.1%

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate May 6.6% 6.6% 6.5%

09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. May 15.8 16.3 15.3

09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) July 4.8 0.1

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency remained supported by yesterday's comments by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The Fed Chair said the economy in the U.S. is continuing to improve but the recovery is not yet complete. She added that if the labour market continues to improve more quickly, the Fed will hike its interest rate sooner than expected, but weaker conditions will mean a longer period of low interest rate.

The Fed Chair Yellen will testifiy before the House Financial Services Committee today.

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected trade data from the Eurozone. Eurozone's trade balance surplus rose to €15.3 billion in May from €15.2 billion in April, missing expectations for an increase to €16.3 billion. April's figure was revised down from a surplus of €15.8 billion.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar despite the better-than-expected labour market data from UK. The unemployment rate in the UK decreased to 6.5% in the three months to May, from 6.6% in the previous three months. That was the lowest level since October to December 2008.

Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.5%.

The number of people claiming unemployment benefit dropped by 36,300 in June, exceeding expectations for a decline by 27,100, after, after a fall by 27,400 in May.

These strong figures could mean that the Bank of England will hike its interest rate sooner than expected, perhaps before the end of the year.

But there is a problem. The growth in real wages remains weak. Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, increased by an annual 0.7% in the three months to May, after a 0.9% rise in the previous three months. That was the slowest growth since records began in 2001. Inflation over the same period was 1.6%.

Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose by an annual 0.3% in the three months to May, after a revised 0.8% rise in the previous three months.

The Swiss franc dropped against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected ZEW/ Credit Suisse index for economic expectations. The ZEW/ Credit Suisse index for economic expectations in Switzerland declined to 0.1 in July from 4.8 in June.

The Canadian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. Analysts expect the BoC will keep unchanged its interest rate at 1.00%.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3529

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.7113

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y101.79

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) May -0.1% +0.4%

12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m June -0.2% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y June +2.0% +1.8%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m June -0.1% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y June +2.0% +1.7%

13:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows May -24.2 27.4

13:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows May 136.8

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) June +0.6% +0.4%

13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization June 79.1% 79.4%

14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 1.00% 1.00%

14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

14:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

14:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies

14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index July 49 51

15:15 Canada BOC Press Conference

16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks

18:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book July

16.07.2014 12:00

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