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01.07.2014 15:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Prices of oil futures declined slightly today, having fallen under the influence of upbeat manufacturing data in China, and the tense situation in Iraq and in Ukraine.

As it became known, purchasing managers index was 51.0. Figure corresponds to the median estimate of analysts and increased compared to 50.8 in May. A similar index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 50.7 compared with 49.4 in the previous month. In June, production in China grew at the fastest pace this year. This creates signs that the government's efforts to help stabilize the second largest economy in the world.

"The growth of the PMI index suggests that growth recovered in connection with the recent policy-oriented growth, including investments in infrastructure and the rapid financing of budgets", - said Liu Li-Gang, chief economist for Greater China in the Banking Group Australia New Zealand and Hong Kong. - "The recent promise premier Li Keqiang to achieve growth targets shows that the overall position of politicians will be more conducive to growth in the second half of the year." Recall that on July 16, China will publish data on GDP for the second quarter. It is expected that the economy grew by 7.4% compared with a year earlier.

"Markets need a catalyst that would set the direction of prices. Course, need to monitor the situation in Iraq and the Ukraine, but the economic data, including the United States, point to improvements in the global economy," - said OptionsXpress analyst Ben Le Brun.

Market participants are also waiting for the publication of a weekly report on crude oil inventories in the United States. Experts expect a decline in U.S. oil inventories for the previous week by 2.5 million barrels. A week earlier, the Ministry of Energy reported an increase in stocks at the terminal at Cushing, which stores the physical quantities of oil, 416 thousand barrels. Increase was the third in the last five months, and the level of reserves at the terminal close to the minimum five years.

"Regarding the positive dynamics of quotations WTI is largely due to expectations reduce inventories, - said the head of Mizuho Securities futures Bob Yeager. - Provisions on the terminal in Cushing falling at an alarming rate. "

Traders also expected employment data in the U.S., which will be published on Thursday. According to analysts, the number of jobs in June increased by 211,000, and if the forecast is confirmed, the increase in the number of jobs exceeds 200,000 the fifth month in a row, which has not happened since September 1999, January 2000.

Cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 105.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

August futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell 13 cents to $ 112.20 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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