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11.06.2014 12:44

Foreign exchange market. European session: the yen rose against the U.S. dollar due to expectations that the Bank of Japan will not expand its stimulus measures

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:30    Australia                Westpac Consumer Confidence          June     -6.8%                  0.2%

08:30    United Kingdom     Average Earnings, 3m/y                     April      +1.7%  +1.2%  +0.7%

08:30    United Kingdom     Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y  April      +1.3%  +1.2%  +0.9%

08:30    United Kingdom     Claimant count                                   May       -25.1     -25.0    -27.4

08:30    United Kingdom     Claimant Count Rate                          May       3.3%                   3.2%

08:30    United Kingdom     ILO Unemployment Rate                    April       6.8%     6.7%     6.6%

09:00    OPEC                    OPEC Meetings                                                             

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies, but the U.S. currency is still supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasuries climbed to 2.64% on Tuesday. That was the highest yield since last month.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro suffers due to bond yield gap between some euro area government bonds and U.S. Treasuries. While the currency in the Eurozone is to remain permanently cheap, the first interest rate hike by the Fed in the United States and by the Bank of England in the U.K. is more likely.

The European Central Bank cut its interest rate last Thursday. The ECB reduced its deposit rate to -0.10% from 0.0%. The European Central Bank is the world’s first major central bank to use a negative rate. The deposit rate of -0.10% means that commercial bank will be charged for holding their reserves. This measure should spur commercial banks to ramp up lending.

The British pound increased against the U.S. dollar due to the strong labour market data in the U.K. The U.K. unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in the three months to April from 6.8% in the previous three months. That was the lowest level since early 2009. Analysts had expected a decline to 6.7%.

Jobless claims (claimant count) declined by 27,400 in May, compared with a forecast for a decline of 25,000 people. April’s figure was revised to a decrease of 28,400 from 25,100.

Weekly earnings increased by 0.7% in the three months to April, missing expectations for a 1.2% gain, after a 1.7% rise in the previous three months. The growth of wages is slower than inflation in the U.K. The inflation rate in the UK was 1.8% in April.

The Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar due to expectations that the Bank of Japan will not expand its stimulus measures at its meeting this week.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.6796

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.85

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:30    U.S.                       Crude Oil Inventories             June      -3.4                     

18:00    U.S.                       Federal budget                      May       106.9    -142.8 

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Interest Rate Decision                3.00%   3.25%  

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Rate Statement                                               

21:00    New Zealand          RBNZ Press Conference                                                           

23:01    United Kingdom     RICS House Price Balance        May       54%       52%     

23:50    Japan                    Core Machinery Orders            April      +19.1% -10.8%

23:50    Japan                    Core Machinery Orders, y/y     April      +16.1%

11.06.2014 12:00

Orders

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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