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21.04.2013 18:20

American focus : the euro fell against the U.S. dollar

Euro fell against the dollar , reaching a minimum in this week . Economic calendar today was almost empty - Europe continues to celebrate the Passover . Impact on the dynamics of U.S. data on business activity and the Chicago Fed index of leading indicators. According to the report , the national index of business activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in March fell to a level of 0.20 points from 0.53 in February. Recall that any value above zero indicates growth above historical trends. However, the moving average of 3 months , which is intended to smooth out volatility , was at 0.00 points, compared to -0.14 points in February . The largest contribution to the fall production figures made ​​- production sub-index was 0.21 compared to 0.54 in the previous month . Sub- sales index also reduced the total for March - it was 0.02 , compared to 0.08 in February. Producer price index, consumer price index and retail sales for March were in the black . Employment sub-index showed an increase to 0.14 last month from 0.07 , while the sub- index of consumption rose to -0.13 from -0.17 , respectively.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board data showed that the leading economic index (LEI) in the United States rose 0.8 percent in March to 100.9 , after rising 0.5 percent in February and 0.2 percent increase in January. The coincident index from the Conference Board rose 0.2 percent to 108.3 in March , after rising 0.4 percent in February and 0.1 percent decline in January. The lagging index rose by 0.6 percent in March to 123.0, after rising 0.3 percent in February and 0.6 percent increase in January.

The dollar rose to nearly two-week high against the Japanese yen , which was associated with the release of data on foreign trade deficit in Japan , which rose more than expected , triggering selling yen. Nevertheless , the initial wave of buying of the U.S. dollar has lost strength due to low liquidity and lack of market participants due to the celebration of Easter . Instead, the market has prevailed caution ahead of key events , expected later this week.

Reducing the yen helped to increase the output data of foreign trade deficit Japan in March to a record level for this month . Imports jumped , while export growth remained subdued . Ministry of Finance of Japan on Monday released data showing that the trade deficit in March reached 1.45 trillion Japanese yen , the highest level ever observed at the end of this month. March became the 21st consecutive month , when it was recorded trade deficit . Published data were far worse than the median forecast of economists, who had expected a deficit of 1.07 trillion yen.

Pound in early trading moderately rose against the dollar , but could not hold the position , and returned to the opening level . Little impact on the dynamics of the news had on improving the forecast of growth of the UK economy . Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said that the economy will grow by 3.1 % this year and even have the opportunity to modest tax cuts before the election. Rising disposable income , business investment and strengthening the construction sector , taking into account the strengthening of the housing market will accelerate economic recovery in 2014. From improving economic data will win government - especially conservatives - on the eve of general elections next year : " There is probably an opportunity for a modest tax cuts to 7 billion pounds ." According to the forecast , the GDP will grow, inflation will be below 2 % , when the country will come to the elections , with low interest rates , falling unemployment and rising prices for housing, which can create a reason for optimism . CEBR projected growth of 3.1 % this year will be the strongest since 2007, when GDP grew by 3.4% , before the financial crisis , which caused a 0.8% drop in national production in 2008. Forecast Office for Budget Responsibility 2.7 % in 2014 . The economy grew by 1.7% in 2013.

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