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11.04.2014 15:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Cost of oil futures rose slightly against the publication of the U.S. producer price index and consumer sentiment index . As it became known , consumer sentiment improved in April - sentiment index rose to a maximum of nine months since grown and assessment of current conditions and future expectations . Preliminary index of consumer sentiment from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan was at the level of 82.6 , compared with 80.0 in March. Analysts had expected the April index value at 81.2 . Indicator assessment of current economic conditions rose to 97.1 , compared with 95.7 in March. This is above the median estimate of analysts in 96.3 . Consumer expectations index was 73.3 , 70.0 in March. Expectations were at 71.4 . Inflation expectations in the long term than one year decreased from 3.2% to 3.1%. Inflation expectations in the future five years rose from 2.9 % to 3.0%.

On today's dynamics also affected message , the International Energy Agency (IEA) . Experts noted the continuing high risks in the oil market , lowering growth forecast for global demand this year after the Crimea to Russia . In addition, the agency warned that the probability of decline in oil production . Forecast demand for oil in the Russian Federation in 2014 decreased by 55,000 barrels per day to 3.5 million barrels per day. New economic sanctions and pressure on the Russian economy may reduce demand for oil in this country by another 150,000 barrels a day this year , said the IEA . Agency forecast growth in global oil demand this year decreased by 100 thousand barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day . In addition, the IEA lowered its forecast for growth in oil supply from countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 2014 to 250,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day . Meanwhile, today the British newspaper Financial Times reported an increase in exports by China of refined petroleum products , including gasoline and diesel . In the source notes that the March product exports from China amounted to 650 thousand barrels per day , meanwhile quantitative indices of imports equaled 560 thousand barrels. Consequently, on an annualized basis in March 2013 with respect to imports of petroleum products decreased by 25 % and exports increased by 3.4 %. Experts believe that the increase in exports of petroleum products from China will gather pace throughout 2014 and 2015 . It is predicted that this year the refining industry will increase production by 800 thousand barrels per day. In December 2009 and January 2010, the export of oil products in China has exceeded the volume of imports , but experts have expressed the view that the current trend is more long-term plans .

Since the beginning of this week, WTI has risen by 2% on the signals of improvement in the U.S. economy have increased the expectations of growth in demand for energy in the country.

The difference in prices WTI and Brent fell by the results of the previous trading to $ 4.06 per barrel , which was the minimum level since last September.

May futures for U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 104.08 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

May futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose $ 0.36 to $ 107.65 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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