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03.04.2014 12:15

European session: the pound fell against the U.S. currency


00:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) February +1.2% +0.4% +0.2%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y February +6.2% +4.9%

00:30 Australia Trade Balance February 1.39 Revised From 1.43 0.82 1.20

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI March 55.0 54.5

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI March 51.0 51.9

07:48 France Services PMI (Finally) March 51.4 51.4 51.5

07:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) March 54.0 54.0 53.0

07:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) March 52.4 52.4 52.2

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services March 58.2 58.2 57.6

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter I

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February +1.0% Revised From +1.6% -0.3% +0.4%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February +1.3% +0.6% +0.8%

11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

The Euro is trading slightly higher against the dollar after the ECB's decision to leave rates unchanged - at 0.25 %. Now market participants' attention switches to the ECB press conference . Investors were cautious , fearing that the ECB may respond to lower inflation by easing policy . Nevertheless , they remain skeptical that the ECB wants to take more effective action in the short term , reducing refinancing or increasing liquidity.

Little impact on today's currency also provided data that showed business activity index for the services sector fell in March to reach 52.2 from February's 32-month high of 52.6 points . Experts expect that this figure will be 52.4 points. However, the service sector firms were more optimistic about future prospects - the sub- index of business expectations rose to 64.0 from 62.4 , the highest since mid-2011. The final composite index fell to 53.1 from 53.3 in March . Preliminary reported 53.2 . However, the index remains above 50 for the ninth consecutive month , based on improved market conditions and an increase in new orders.

Another report showed : in February, sales rose by 0.4 percent compared with an increase of 1.0 percent in January (revised downwards from 1.6 per cent). Many economists had forecast a decline in sales of 0.3 percent. Add that food sales rose in February by 0.3 percent , while sales of non-food - by 0.8 percent . In annual terms, sales in February also increased - by 0.8 percent , which was slightly higher than estimates of experts at 0.6 percent.

Pound fell against the dollar , which was associated with the release of weak UK data . As it became known , the services sector continued to expand in the UK last month , indicating that the sustained economic growth in the first quarter , although the pace of this growth was the slowest since June last year . According to the index of purchasing managers index for the services sector fell to 57.6 points in March from 58.2 in February , which was below the consensus forecast of economists at the level of 58.2 points. Nevertheless, the index remained well above the level of 50 points , which indicates expansion and points to strong growth in the services sector , which accounts for over three quarters of the UK economy. We add that the employment index in the services sector fell to 53.5 in March from 55.6 in February , the new orders index increased at the slowest pace in 10 months , and the index of business expectations fell to its lowest level since November . Studies have also revealed that the composite index of business activity for the manufacturing, construction and service sector fell to 58.1 in March from 58.6 in February , while reaching the lowest level since June last year. We add that the prices paid index fell to its lowest in nearly a year .

The yen traded almost unchanged against the dollar ahead of tomorrow's publication of official unemployment data from the U.S. Labor Department . According to the median forecast of economists in March U.S. employers created 200 thousand jobs against 175 thousand in the previous month . Yesterday the published employment figures from the Research Institute of ADP. In March, private sector employment increased markedly , came close to the forecasted values. According to a report last month, the number of employees increased by 191 thousand compared with a revised upward figure for the previous month at 178 million ( initially reported growth of 139 thousand ) . Add projected their number would grow to 192 thousand

The Japanese yen also affected the data for China , which showed that the mood in the service sector in China have improved in March , which is a positive sign for the second largest economy in the world . Purchasing Managers Index for China's services sector , which is calculated HSBC, rose to 51.9 against 51.0 in February. Nevertheless , the official index of manufacturing activity in China in March dropped to around 54.5 to 55.0 in February.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3743 , but then recovered to $ 1.3770

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6578

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y104.07 from Y103.92

At 12:30 GMT will be held monthly press conference of the ECB. Also at 12:30 GMT Canada and the U.S. will report on its trade balance for February. At 14:00 GMT the United States will composite index of ISM non-manufacturing areas in March.

03.04.2014 12:00


Market Focus

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  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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