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19.03.2014 13:17

European session: the pound rose substantially against the U.S. dollar


04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m January -0.1% +1.3% +1.0%

05:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y January +1.0% +1.2% +1.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y January +1.1% +1.3% +1.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count February -27.6 -23.3 -34.6

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate February 3.6% 3.5% 3.5%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate January 7.2% 7.2% 7.2%

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m January +0.9% +1.8% +1.5%

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y January -0.2% +8.8%

10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) March 28.7 25.0 19.0

12:30 United Kingdom Chancellor Osborne Speaks

12:30 United Kingdom Annual Budget Release 2014

12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m January -1.3% Revised From -1.4% +1.2% +0.8%

12:30 U.S. Current account, bln Quarter IV -96.37 Revised From -94.84 -88.0 -81.12

Euro traded slightly lower against the dollar today on the eve of publication of the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed , followed by the first press conference Janet Yellen . It is expected that the Central Bank will continue to reduce the quantitative easing program . It is worth noting that in the last month , Fed Chairman Yellen, promised to continue to move in the direction of reduction of monetary stimulus . Positive economic statistics confirm this prediction . In addition, analysts expect the Fed to abandon the target level of unemployment, which tied terms of higher interest rates . Most experts expect that the Central Bank may move to a new practice notice of plans to raise the base interest rate and determine further action by a number of macroeconomic indicators .

Little influenced by the data for the euro area , which showed that the seasonally adjusted construction output rose in January by 1.5 per cent ( on a monthly basis ), which is followed by growth of 1.3 percent in December and fall by 0.1 percent in November . Experts predicted an increase of 1.8 percent. In annual terms, construction output rose by 8.8 percent in the beginning of the year , changing the downward trend , which was observed in recent months.

Pound was up against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the publication of minutes of meetings of the Bank of England and labor market data . Note that the minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England from March 5-6, showed that members of the Central Bank were unanimous in their decision to maintain the status quo , leaving the rate at around 0.5% , and the size of its asset purchase program - at £ 375 billion MPC members noted that in the three months to December , employment growth slowed slightly in the UK , and the unemployment rate remained above the 7% mark target designated by the Bank in the past year . MPC members stressed that the recent appreciation of sterling puts downward pressure on inflation .

Meanwhile, data showed that the unemployment rate for three months ( December) compared with the previous three-month period remained unchanged - at 7.2 % , confirming the predictions of many experts. The number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 34.6 million in February , after falling 33.9 thousand the previous month ( revised from -27.6 million). Economists were expecting a decrease only 23.3 thousand Moreover , it became known that the level of unemployment claims for employment fell in February to reach 3.5% from 3.6 % in January , showing the 16th consecutive monthly decline . The number of people in employment has reached a new record high - a little less than 30.2 million , driven by growth in self-employment.

The yen fell against the U.S. dollar . Impact on the dynamics of the data provided by Japan, as well as words BOJ board member Takahide Kiut . Report submitted to the Ministry of Finance of Japan, showed that the trade deficit declined in February to a level of 800.3 billion yen , compared with 2.8 trillion . yen in January. Deficit reduction occurred on the background of accelerating export growth and weakening imports. However, experts expect further reduction - up to 600 billion yen. Add that captures Japan 's trade deficit for 20 consecutive months ( the longest period since 1979 ) . Meanwhile, it became known that the growth rate of imports in the country in February slowed to 9% from 25.1 % in January , as export growth accelerated to 9.8% from 9.5% .

With regard to the Kiut , he warned that if the Central Bank will forever campaign to mitigate the monetary policy or to undertake additional mitigation measures , it can give rise to adverse effects on the markets .

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3914 , after recovering slightly

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6640

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.70, but then declined slightly

At 18:00 GMT the economic outlook released on FOMC, and will be known FOMC decision on the basic interest rate. Also accompanying statement will be presented FOMC. At 18:30 GMT the United States will be a press conference FOMC. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand declares to the change in GDP for the 4th quarter.

19.03.2014 12:59


Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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