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07.03.2014 13:15

European session: the euro continued yesterday's rise against the U.S. dollar


05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index January 111.7 112.4 112.2

05:00 Japan Coincident Index January 111.7 114.6 114.8

06:30 Switzerland Unemployment Rate February 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves February 437.7 433.5

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) February -0.3% +0.4% +0.1%

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) February +0.1% +0.1% -0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter I +3.6% +2.8%

11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) January +0.1% Revised From -0.6% +0.7% +0.8%

11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) January +2.6% +5.0%

The euro exchange rate has risen considerably against the U.S. dollar , reaching at this level of $ 1.3915 . Positive attitude to the euro yesterday fueled refusal of additional ECB easing measures . Now the market is waiting for data on employment in the United States. According to the median forecast of economists , farm employment in February increased from 113 thousand to 151 thousand , while maintaining the level of unemployment at around 6.6 %, which would be welcomed by the markets. However, published earlier in the week ADP figure was worse than expected and so the official figures may also disappoint . Meanwhile, the positive signals are stored . Yesterday, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week fell by 26 thousand and reached 323 thousand Analysts believed that the number of jobless claims to fall by only 12 thousand

Positive impact on the dynamics of German data , which showed that the unusually warm winter has helped to raise industrial production. Industrial production rose 0.8% in January, exceeding economists' expectations of 0.7 %. Value in December was also revised upward - to 0.1 % from -0.6 %. Data follows the unexpectedly strong production orders in January , which suggest that the German economy was strong earlier this year. Overall increase in orders - a consequence of the growth of their domestic orders and orders outside the EU ( 7.2 %). On the other hand , the orders of the currency bloc fell by almost 9 % m / m Note that the German economy grew by 0.4 % in the fourth quarter of last year , is expected to add almost 2 % in 2014 as a whole.

Pound was able to compensate for their morning dip against the dollar, and even reached highs yesterday. Helped this data , which showed that the expectations of the British against rising interest rates over the next year are on the rise , even despite the fact that their inflation forecasts down . It became known from the quarterly survey , which was presented to the Bank of England . Add that this survey was conducted in the period from 6 to 18 February , and it was attended by 3949 people.

According to the data , 40 percent of Britons expect growth rates over the next 12 months , compared with 34 percent in November , the highest level since May 2012 . However , inflation expectations for the next year fell to 2.8 percent from 3.6 percent , and reached its lowest value in the last four years. Inflation expectations over the next two to five years also fell to its lowest level since August 2012 . Ratings inflation is likely to support the Bank of England's message that we should not rush to increase interest rates.

The Australian dollar gained new impetus and continued gains against the U.S. dollar, which has lasted for a fifth straight day . This allowed the peak for 3 months . Pair manages to break above the 0.9100 mark , despite comments RBA head Stevens , who said earlier that the rate at above 0.9000 is overpriced . Stevens also said that in anticipation of weakening labor market and a corresponding reduction in wages , as well as under the influence of the reduction of investment in the natural resources sector , the main task " very adaptive ," monetary policy is to stimulate the real estate market . " Projected inflation will meet the target level for the next two years , despite the fact that today it remains at a higher level than before. The overall economic situation in the country - regardless of the reduction in demand for labor , reducing wages , inflation - probably would not have a significant pressure on the national currency of Australia. Especially the demand from foreign central banks contributed to the strengthening of the Australian dollar , " - said Stevens.

Since the beginning of the week the Australian dollar rose more than two figures give support to such factors as rising risk appetite , the RBA decision to leave the rate unchanged monetary policy and strong national macro .

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3915

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6720 , but then rose to $ 1.6784

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair dropped to Y102.82, then retreated to Y103.00

At 13:30 GMT Canada said the unemployment rate and the change in the number of employed in February , changing the level of productivity in the 4th quarter , and will report on its trade balance for January. At 13:30 GMT the U.S. will release data on its trade balance in January , the unemployment rate for February and to change the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls in February.

07.03.2014 13:00


Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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