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19.02.2014 06:24

Asian session: The dollar fell to a seven-week low

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter IV +0.5% +0.7% +0.7%

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter IV +2.7% +2.6% +2.6%

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m December +0.3% +0.2% -0.1%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report February

The dollar fell to a seven-week low versus the euro before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its January meeting as investors look for the stance of policy makers on recent economic data. The U.S. central bank announced in December it would start paring stimulus by cutting its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion per month, and policy makers decided on another reduction of the same size last month, to $65 billion.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its lowest close since December before data today forecast to show U.S. housing starts and building permits fell in January. U.S. housing starts probably fell 4.9 percent to a 950,000 annualized rate in January after December’s 9.8 percent drop, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Commerce Department data today. Economists in a separate Bloomberg poll predict building permits decreased 1.6 percent to a 975,000 pace last month from December.

The pound traded near the highest in more than four years before figures forecast to show the U.K. jobless rate held at the lowest since March 2009. In the U.K., the unemployment rate held at 7.1 percent in December from the previous month, matching the lowest since March 2009, the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg shows before the Office for National Statistics releases the data today.

The Bank of England will today release minutes of its Feb. 5-6 meeting when policy makers kept the interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.

Australia’s dollar retreated from the highest this month as Asian stocks declined and ahead of a gauge of Chinese manufacturing tomorrow forecast to show continued contraction. A flash estimate of China manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.5, HSBC and Markit Economics will say tomorrow according to economists in a Bloomberg survey. A reading below 50 indicate contraction. China is the biggest trading partner of both Australia and New Zealand.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3770

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range to $ 1.6675-95

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair fell to Y102.15

The European calendar gets underway at 0900GMT, when ECB Supervisory Board chair Daniele Nouy and ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger speak at a hearing on the draft ECB SSM Framework Regulation, in Frankfurt. The limited euro area data set for release comes at 1000GMT, when the December construction output data cross the wires. There are a string of appearances expected from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as she continues her visit to Paris. At 1345GMT, Merkel and French President Francois Hollande will hold a press conference, in Paris. Chancellor Merkel will deliver an economic policy speech at the OECD, in Paris at 1600GMT. Following that, Merkel, Hollande and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso will speak after meeting of the European Round Table of Industrialists. The main UK data release comes at 0930GMT, when the January Labour Market Statistics are released. The minutes of the BOE's early February meeting will also be released at 0930GMT. The US calendar gets underway at 1200GMT, when the MBA Mortgage Index for the Feb 14 week are released. At 1245GMT, the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data for the week ending Feb 15 will be published. The main US data releases will be published at 1330GMT, when both January PPI data and the Jan housing starts data will hit the screens. The Redbook Average for the Feb 15 week will be published at 1355GMT. Across the Atlantic, from 1800GMT, the Fed will take centre stage. St. Louis Fed Bullard will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy, in W'ton. The FOMC minutes for the Jan 28-29 meeting will be released at 1900GMT.

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