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12.02.2014 06:23

Asian session: The dollar held

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln January 25.6 24.2 31.9

The dollar held declines against most of its major counterparts before a report tomorrow forecast to show U.S. retail sales stalled last month. U.S. retail sales stagnated in January after a 0.2 percent gain the month before, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the U.S. Commerce Department reports the data tomorrow. The Labor Department said on Feb. 7 hiring in the U.S. rose by 113,000 in January, fewer than the 180,000 gain forecast by economists.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was near the lowest in almost a month after Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen said yesterday the recovery in the U.S. labor market is “far from complete.” Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee yesterday that policy makers would continue to scale back stimulus in “measured steps,” and repeated the Fed’s statement that asset purchases aren’t on a “pre-set course.”

Australia’s currency rose to a four-week high after China trade surged. In China, imports climbed 10 percent last month from a year earlier, topping every estimate in a Bloomberg economist poll. Exports gained 10.6 percent, also exceeding all forecasts. The data comes after the Lunar New Year holiday between Jan. 31 and Feb. 6.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament today that markets have maintained trust in Japan’s finances, and fiscal consolidation is necessary to keep it. Policy board member Takahide Kiuchi said in an interview with Japan’s Nikkei newspaper that additional monetary easing to offset the effect of a sales tax increase in April may have negative side effects.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will deliver the keynote address at a conference in Brussels today.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3625

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6440-55

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair fell to Y102.40

There is a full calendar again Wednesday, although again data is largely second tier and appearances by central bankers will again dominate. The European

calendar gets underway at 0745GMT, with the release of the French December current account data. At 0815GMT, Swiss January CPI data will cross the wires. ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny will take part in the ECB/BNB Conference, in Brussels. Luc Coene speaks at the same event from

0900GMT. EMU December industrial output data will be released at 1000GMT. The German government issues its annual economic report, including updated forecasts, in Berlin at 1100GMT. At the same time, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet will speak on "Banking faces the 21st century", in Madrid. Appearances by central bank heads continues at 1530GMT when ECB President Mario Draghi delivers a speech at ECB/BNB conference, in Brussels. At

1830GMT, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure will give a keynote speech at reception for the German-Asian business circle, in Bad Homburg, Germany. Sovereign issuance will see Germany sell a new 2-year benchmark issue -- Mar 2016 Schatz for up to E5bln and Italy issue a new 12-month BOT, maturing Feb 13, 2015 for E8bln. The main UK event comes at 1030GMT, when the Bank of England releases the February Quarterly Inflation Report and Governor Mark Carney faces the press.

The US calendar gets underway at 1200GMT, with the release of the MBA Mortgage Index for the February 7 week. At 1345GMT, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard will sit on a panel discussing the economic outlook, in New York. The EIA Crude Oil Stocks data for the Feb 8 week will

cross the wires at 1530GMT. Late US data sees the release of the January Treasury Statement at 1800GMT.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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