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06.02.2014 13:14

European session: the euro fell sharply against the U.S. dollar


00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) December +0.7% +0.5% +0.5%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y December +4.6% +5.7%

00:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter IV 5 Revised From 3 8

00:30 Australia Trade Balance December 0.08 Revised From -0.12 -0.27 0.47

06:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter IV -5 0 2

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance December 2.11 2.41 0.5

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index January -0.6% +0.4% +1.1%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y January +7.5% +7.3% +7.3%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) December +2.4% +0.3%  -0.5%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) December +6.8% +7.9%

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375 375

12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

Rate of the euro fell sharply against the U.S. dollar , while losing all positions receive immediately after the announcement of the ECB rate decision . Note that the ECB decided to leave the refinancing rate at around 0.25 %. Now market participants' attention shifted to the press conference the head of the ECB , Mario Draghi , which is scheduled for 13:30 GMT. It is expected that it will affect their comments deflation problem in the region.

Meanwhile, add that to the announcement of the decision at a rate little impact on the euro was a report on Germany, which showed that the number of manufacturing orders unexpectedly fell in December , while orders from the euro zone have increased significantly , potentially signals of recovery. According to the data , the results of December promzakazy fell by 0.5% ( seasonally adjusted ), which was followed after increasing 2.4% in November ( revised up from 2.1 %). I also add that many experts expected increase in the number of orders by 0.3%. Earlier this week, an industry group VDMA also reported a disappointing year for the completion of the major machine builders , but some experts still predict an increase in total orders .

Pound retreated from a session low against the dollar, however, continues to trade slightly lower . Pound had little support that the Bank of England left interest rates at 0.5% as expected . Program of asset purchases was also left on the 375 billion accompanying statement was not, but the head of the Central Bank Governor Mark Carney said earlier that he was not going to raise rates earlier, and that the target level of unemployment rate in the 7.0 % is not a factor that triggers the policy tightening . It is expected that the minutes of the meeting reflect the increased emphasis on the bank's inflation. Recall that the inflation report last month reflected the value at the target of 2.0 % for the first time in the last 4 years.

Little impact on the currency also had a report that showed that the rise in house prices in the UK slowed slightly in the last month , and confirmed the average forecast of experts. This was stated in the report of Halifax. According to figures for January house price index rose by 7.3 per cent per annum, compared with an increase of 7.5 percent in December. In monthly terms, the house price index rose 1.1 percent in January , while offsetting the 0.5 percent decline in the previous month , which was revised downward from -0.6 percent. Expectations were at the level of 0.4 percent.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3488

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6270 , and then recovered to $ 1.6287

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair traded in a narrow range

At 13:30 GMT the euro area will be held monthly press conference of the ECB. At 13:30 GMT , Canada and the United States declares its trade balance for December. Also this time, the U.S. will announce data on changes in the level of labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector for the 4th quarter and change the level of cost of labor for the 4th quarter .

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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