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06.02.2014 07:20

Asian session: The euro was near an 11-week low

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) December +0.7% +0.5% +0.5%

00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y December +4.6% +5.7%

00:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter IV 5 Revised From 3 8

00:30 Australia Trade Balance December 0.08 Revised From -0.12 -0.27 0.47


The euro was near an 11-week low amid speculation slowing inflation will prompt the European Central Bank to reinforce its dovish stance when announcing an interest-rate decision today. The ECB will hold its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.25 percent today, a separate poll of economists shows. Official figures last week showed that consumer-price growth slowed in January to match the weakest pace since November 2009.

Overnight implied volatility on Europe’s common currency rose toward the highest since 2012. Premiums on overnight options for the euro against the dollar jumped to 17.8 percent, poised to close at the highest level since 2011.

Demand for the yen was curbed as Japanese stocks advanced, sapping demand for haven assets.

The Australian dollar rose to a three-week high after record exports to China fueled an unexpected trade surplus. The nation’s overseas shipments exceeded imports by A$468 million ($420 million) in December, the statistics bureau said today. Economists had forecast a shortfall of A$200 million. Australia’s exports to China jumped to A$94.5 billion in 2013, the most on record.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3520

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6300-30

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y101.30-65


There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Thursday, with the policy decisions from both the ECB and MPC the stand out features. The European calendar gets underway at 1100GMT, with the release of the German December manufacturing orders data. At 1215GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel hold a joint press conference in Berlin. The ECB's February policy decision is expected at 1245GMT, followed by President Mario Draghi's press conference at 1330GMT. Although consensus suggests the ECB will stand pat, the continued slide in core HICP could help nudge the Council into action, with some economists suggesting a possible cut of either 0.1% or 0.15% to the headline refi rate.

Market Focus

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  • U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, January 227 (forecast 175)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
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