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03.02.2014 07:02

Asian session: The euro was 0.1 percent from its lowest level in more than two months

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m December -1.5% -0.3% -2.9%

00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y December +22.2% +21.8%

00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) January -0.7% -0.3%

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI January 54.6 53.4

05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y January -4.0% -9.9%


The euro was 0.1 percent from its lowest level in more than two months on concern weakening inflation pressures in the region will prompt the European Central Bank to ease monetary policy. Euro-area consumer prices climbed an annual 0.7 percent last month after a 0.8 percent advance in December, the European Union’s statistics office said last week. That’s the fourth consecutive reading of less than 1 percent while the ECB aims to keep inflation at just under 2 percent.

The yen declined following its biggest monthly gain in almost two years before Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata speaks on Feb. 6 amid prospects the BOJ will persist with monetary stimulus. Iwata said in October that the BOJ will continue to buy bonds until its 2 percent inflation target is achieved. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is projected to end its asset-purchase program this year, according to analysts in a Jan. 10 Bloomberg survey. It announced on Jan. 29 that it will trim its monthly bond buying by $10 billion to $65 billion.

Australia’s dollar held gains from last week before the nation’s central bank sets interest rates tomorrow. Swaps trades show more than 90 percent odds the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep rates unchanged at 2.5 percent tomorrow. The central bank has cut the benchmark by 2.25 percentage points starting November 2011 to spur the domestic economy as it adjusts to the end of a record mining boom.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3480-95

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6420-35

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y102.40


There is a full calendar Monday, the day that ushers in a new regime at the Federal Reserve, with the market set to see a host of final manufacturing PMI data. The European calendar gets underway at 0800GMT, with the release of French January car registrations and Spain's January unemployment data. Also at 0800GMT, Spanish Finance Minister de Guindos is slated to speak in Madrid. The main euro area PMI releases kick off at 0813GMT, when Spanish January final manufacturing numbers will be released. Italian numbers are set to be released at 0843GMT, France at 0848GMT, Germany at 0853GMT and Euro area data at 0858GMT. The amalgamated euro area data is expected to come in at 53.9, unchanged on the prior. German December machine orders data will be released at 0900GMT. The US calendar starts at 1358GMT, when the January Markit manufacturing PMI data will be released. The number is seen edging higher to 53.8 from December's 53.7. US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is set to deliver a speech on the need to raise the debt limit in Washington, starting at 1400GMT. At 1500GMT, US December construction spending and January ISM index data will be released. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline further to a reading of 56.0 in January from 56.5 in December after annual revisions. Construction spending is expected to rise 0.2% in December as residential construction is seen advancing further based on the recent strong pace of housing starts, even with the decline in December starts. US light vehicle sales data is also due for release Monday. Sales are expected to rebound to a 12.2 million annual rate in January after falling sharply to 11.7 million in December. Seasonal adjustment factors are far more accommodative than December, adding significantly to unadjusted sales to compensate for what is usually a weak month.

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