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29.01.2014 18:40

American focus : Japanese yen has risen considerably against the U.S. dollar

Rate of the euro regained almost all previously lost ground against the dollar, while returning to levels opening of the session amid a lack of economic drivers, and in anticipation of the Fed's decision . Note that today completed the first in this year's meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed. This session will last for Ben Bernanke as chairman. But, why this meeting is important. The fact of change management fedrerva is not essential for the markets , as it is already priced in , and the name of the next head of the U.S. central bank has long been known . More important is the answer to the question whether the Fed will continue to curtail the program of quantitative easing (QE)? Most likely , the answer to this question is yes . But, there are a number of factors that reduce the likelihood of such an outcome and not exclude the possibility that the Fed will take a wait and see position , without making its monetary policy unchanged. Many experts say that the central bank is likely to reduce their monthly bond purchases to $ 10 billion , followed by further changes by the same amount over the next five meetings , and before the end of the year to announce the completion of the program.

Pound retreated from a session low against the dollar , reaching levels opening trading today. Impact on the dynamics of the Bank of England comments , and expectations of the Fed meeting announcement . Add that today, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that rates will remain unchanged for some time to allow the economic recovery to gain a foothold . And their rise will be gradual , he said.

Speaking in Edinburgh , Carney said that he expects that the pound will cause moderate inflation and slower growth in consumption. He also made it clear that the MPC will soon submit the changes to the " policy of transparency."

Carney said that the need arises to partially abandon national sovereignty in the case If Scotland becomes an independent state , but continue to use the pound. Will need to create a banking union and impose strict financial rules to avoid problems later , which now have the eurozone. " Such risks are clearly discernible in the euro area in recent years , namely the sovereign debt crisis , financial fragmentation and large differences in economic growth ," said Carney .

The yen has risen considerably against all but one of the 24 emerging market currencies , given the fact that the central bank of South Africa joined Turkey and raised its key interest rate. In addition, currency growth expectations associated with the announcement of the outcome of the Fed meeting . Experts note that if the Fed decides to minimize the program to $ 10 billion USD / JPY pair can recover positions lost when falling from the peaks near 105.00 . In another scenario, a couple can follow developing currencies in light of their recent sharp fall. The main scenario economists - QE3 completion in December 2014 , that is to minimize the $ 10 billion at each meeting . Despite the fact that this is an expected option, connect falling markets of emerging markets is likely to collapse next .

29.01.2014 18:00

European stock close

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