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23.01.2014 13:16

European session: the euro rose substantially against the U.S. dollar

Data

00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations January +2.1% +2.3%

01:45 China Manufacturing PMI HSBC ( preliminary data ) January 51.0 50.6 49.6

02:00 China Index of leading indicators in December +1.4% +0.4%

05:00 Japan Monthly Economic Report Bank of Japan in January

07:58 France PMI in the manufacturing sector (preliminary data ) January 47.0 47.6 48.8

07:58 France PMI services sector (preliminary data ) January 47.8 48.2 48.6

08:28 Germany PMI manufacturing sector (preliminary data ) January 54.3 54.7 56.3

08:28 Germany PMI services sector (Restated ) January 53.5 54.1 53.6

08:58 Eurozone business activity in the manufacturing sector (preliminary data ) January 52.7 53.2 53.9

08:58 Eurozone business activity in the services sector (preliminary data ) January 51.0 51.5 51.9

09:00 EU balance of payments , seasonally adjusted , in November billion 21.8 19.2 23.5

09:00 Great Speech member of the Monetary Committee and the Committee on the financial policy of the Bank of England P. Fisher

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual

11:00 UK Retail sales according to CBI January 34 28 14


The euro exchange rate rose substantially against the U.S. dollar in anticipation of data on business activity , and the background of the publication itself . It is learned that the business activity in the euro area private sector has grown considerably in the month of January , when showing the highest growth in the last 31 months . This was stated in the study results , which were issued by Markit Economics. The data showed that the composite PMI , which assesses the effectiveness of the manufacturing sector and the services sector rose to 53.2 in January from 52.1 in December , reaching its highest level since June 2011 . Economists had expected a rise to 52.5 . We also add that the activity index for the services sector rose to a four-month high in January , namely to 51.9 points from 51 in December. Economists had forecast an increase to 51.5 . Meanwhile, the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing rose to a 32-month high in January , reaching 53.9 points , compared with 52.7 in December. According to forecasts, this figure should make 53.2 . We add that the production index rose to 56.7 from 54.9 in December. It was the highest value in 33 months.

Pleased also another report which showed that the current account surplus of the eurozone rose unexpectedly in November , registering with the second monthly increase in a row, which primarily was due to a significant increase in exports. According to the report , the current account surplus rose to a seasonally adjusted level of 23.5 billion euros in November , compared with 22.2 billion euros in October. The surplus in trade in goods rose to 18.6 billion euros from 16.6 billion euros. Meanwhile , we add that the surplus on services decreased to 9.5 billion euros from 10.1 billion euros. In addition, data showed that revenue rose to 5 billion euros from 4.9 billion euros, while the current account deficit increased transfers to 9.5 billion euros from 9.4 billion euros in October.

Pound continued its yesterday's gains against the U.S. dollar , while setting a new yearly high . Increased risk appetite supporting sterling today. Positive so far for a pound a week contributes to the continuation of its strengthening levels above $ 1.6600 , where the couple was not since August 2011 . A recent report to the Bank of England combined with data on employment contributed to the development of the current bullish bias. In light of the recent fall in unemployment in the UK to 7.1% , economists note that the rates b / p has all the chances to reach the target mark of 7.0% Bank of England next month. Nearest labor market report is scheduled for February 19. Meanwhile , its decision on monetary policy the Bank of England will announce on February 6 and inflation report released on February 12 . "

The Swiss franc has risen sharply against the U.S. dollar against the backdrop of the Swiss National Bank raised its capital buffer requirements for banks , they should have to mortgage lending. Note that the SNB is supported by the Government now requires mortgage lenders have to have a 2% higher weighted assets in relation to mortgage risk to maintain their lending , against 1% , introduced in February 2013 . New rules on capital reserves associated with a mortgage, come into force on June 30 this year .

"Strengthening of the franc against the background of this decision may lead to repatriation franc as Swiss banks try to replenish their capital ," - said Valentin Marinov, currency strategist at Citigroup. Despite this, the bank holds a negative outlook on the franc against the euro and the dollar. Other analysts agree that the current dynamics of the currency will be short .


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3646

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6615 , and then retreated slightly

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y104.00


At 13:30 GMT , Canada will announce the change in the volume of retail sales for November. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will release the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in January , and will report at 15:00 GMT by sales volume in the secondary housing market in December.

Market Focus

  • Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States
  • Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, November 0.2% (forecast 0.5%)
  • U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, January 227 (forecast 175)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
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